President Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan meet in Abu Dhabi: a new era for peace talks?

President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan of Armenia have met in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, in what many analysts describe as a qualitatively new stage in the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process.

According to government sources, the meeting was held in a highly constructive atmosphere. Discussions were extensive and substantive, covering all major tracks — border delimitation and demarcation, opening of communications with a special emphasis on the Zangezur Corridor, the initialling of a peace treaty, and crucial confidence-building measures.

Orkhan Amashov, host of Context, framed the significance of this moment clearly: "Backdrop is incredibly important and the outcomes are eagerly anticipated."

Amashov highlighted the deeply bilateral nature of this engagement, noting it is the first time the two sides have bilaterally prepared and organised a meeting at this level without mediation or facilitation from third parties.

Dr Vasif Huseynov, Head of Department at the Center for Analysis of International Relations, described this as an "historic moment," pointing to the evolving dynamics since late 2023.

"It is the first time Armenia and Azerbaijan bilaterally organised a meeting at the highest level without any third-party mediation," he said.

Huseynov noted that previously, even when leaders met under European auspices, mediators would leave the room to allow direct talks. Now, no external actor was present — a sign of the maturing bilateral channel.

Observers recall key milestones leading to this moment: the December 2023 joint statements, the bilateral discussions in Munich in February 2024, and meetings on the sidelines of international gatherings. But Abu Dhabi stands out for its geopolitical neutrality and purely bilateral framework. Reports indicate that it was Azerbaijan’s initiative to hold the meeting in Abu Dhabi — a neutral ground away from traditional European or Russian settings — which Armenia accepted.

Dr Huseynov stressed that the peace treaty text was essentially concluded in March this year through bilateral efforts. Yet, significant hurdles remain, including constitutional impediments in Armenia and its territorial claims.

As he pointed out, "Armenia has to remove territorial claims against Azerbaijan from its constitution in order to show that this conflict will not strike back."

Amashov underlined the strategic importance of this phase, reflecting on how the post-2020 and post-2023 shifts created an emerging regional order. The collapse of the separatist regime in Karabakh in September 2023 allowed Azerbaijan to regain full territorial control, reshaping the urgency and dynamics of negotiations.

Notably, Armenia’s acceptance of the bilateral track was a gradual process. Initially cautious and reliant on mediators, Yerevan now appears more open to direct dealings, prompted by evolving security realities and geopolitical shifts.

Dr Huseynov explained, "Today, the Armenian government is accepting the regional vision of the Azerbaijani side," highlighting Prime Minister Pashinyan's recent outreach to Türkiye as part of this broader pivot.

While no breakthrough or formal peace treaty signature is expected immediately, today’s meeting is seen as a critical milestone. The fact that both sides agreed to continue negotiations at various levels, including working groups and higher diplomatic channels, signals sustained momentum.

At the heart of these discussions lies the Zangezur Corridor, a key connective link between Azerbaijan’s mainland and Nakhchivan. The trilateral working group established in January 2021 still formally exists but has been overshadowed by these newer bilateral mechanisms. As Dr Huseynov indicated, the corridor’s future might involve international presence rather than exclusive Russian control — a move reflecting shifting power balances and Yerevan’s deepening reluctance to rely on Moscow.

Meanwhile, Russia’s muted reaction to these developments is notable. Despite its historical stake in the region, Moscow has largely refrained from aggressive responses, even after Azerbaijan’s full restoration of sovereignty over Karabakh and the subsequent withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers in April 2024.

Dr Huseynov remained cautious yet optimistic. "Azerbaijan has been a pragmatic and stable geopolitical actor under President Aliyev’s leadership. This approach is why Armenia is now pushing the peace treaty signing, though constitutional changes remain a precondition."

The Abu Dhabi meeting underscores the tectonic shifts reshaping the South Caucasus. It highlights a new maturity in Baku-Yerevan dialogue and points towards a regional order defined more by local agency than external mediation.

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