Monsoon slowdown raises concerns for India’s key farming regions

India is expected to receive below-average rainfall over the next two weeks, particularly across central and northern regions, as weather systems known as western disturbances slow the advance of the annual monsoon, senior weather officials said.

Western disturbances, which originate over the Mediterranean region, typically bring rain and snow to northern India during the winter months. However, they can also disrupt monsoon patterns when they interact with seasonal weather systems.

Officials from the India Meteorological Department said the current slowdown could delay the monsoon's progression into central India, although conditions are expected to improve later in June.

Agricultural regions face uncertainty

The monsoon season, which delivers around 70% of India's annual rainfall, is critical for agriculture in a country where nearly half of all farmland depends on rainfall rather than irrigation.

Delays in precipitation could affect planting schedules for key summer crops, including rice, cotton, soybeans and pulses.

Central and northern states are expected to receive significantly below-normal rainfall over the next two weeks, while southern regions, including Kerala, Tamil Nadu and parts of Karnataka, are likely to continue experiencing relatively favourable conditions.

Officials noted that the monsoon was already slightly delayed at its onset over Kerala this year, arriving a few days later than usual.

Rainfall expected to return

During the first 10 days of June, India recorded rainfall that was around 26.5% below normal, reflecting the early-season slowdown.

However, meteorologists said the monsoon is expected to strengthen towards the end of June, with broader coverage across the country anticipated in early July.

The weather bureau has forecast that India may receive around 90% of its long-period average rainfall during the June-to-September season, with June itself expected to remain slightly below normal.

While analysts said the short-term deficit is unlikely to severely disrupt sowing if July rainfall is strong, they cautioned that the uneven distribution of monsoon rainfall remains a key risk to agricultural output and rural incomes.

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