Earth’s next five years expected to be hottest ever, WMO warns

The next five years are likely to be the warmest in recorded history, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), as rising global temperatures push the planet closer to surpassing key climate thresholds with wide-ranging consequences.

Following 2024’s record-breaking heat, the Earth is on track for even hotter years ahead. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warns there is an 80% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will set a new global temperature record, with an 86% chance that one of those years will temporarily exceed the 1.5°C warming limit set by the 2015 Paris Agreement.

WMO projections suggest that the average global temperature for 2025–2029 will likely remain above the critical 1.5°C benchmark, though only sustained exceedance over decades would constitute a breach of the Paris goals. Still, scientists stress that every increment of warming intensifies climate-related threats.

“We have just experienced the ten warmest years on record,” said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett. “This report provides no sign of respite… and there will be growing negative impact on our economies, ecosystems and daily lives.”

The report highlights the disproportionate warming in the Arctic, where winter temperatures are projected to rise more than 3.5 times faster than the global average. This amplifies concerns over melting ice, rising sea levels, and disrupted weather patterns globally.

Meanwhile, new NOAA-funded research reveals another dangerous climate feedback: drought can prolong heat waves. Using long-term data from dozens of U.S. weather stations, scientists found that when drought and extreme heat overlap, the duration of heat waves increases by 12 to 48 hours in most regions. The culprit is dry soil, which traps and radiates more heat into the air.

In the eastern U.S., these conditions push daily maximum temperatures even higher, increasing health risks, agricultural losses, and the likelihood of wildfires. Current drought maps show large portions of the Plains and Southwest, including nearly 90% of Nebraska and over 60% of Arizona, already under significant drought stress as summer begins.

Although recent La Niña conditions might slightly dampen temperature spikes in 2025, experts caution that greenhouse gas emissions from human activity remain the dominant long-term driver of global warming. With warming accelerating, the need for urgent climate action grows more critical.

“The climate crisis is not a distant threat,” said meteorologist Dan Peck. “It’s reshaping our way of life now — but we still have the tools to protect our future, if we act decisively.”

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