Climate extremes trigger global spike in food prices, study warns

A growing number of extreme climate events are inflating food prices around the world, with new research showing that key crops such as coffee, cocoa, rice and vegetables have seen sharp increases due to weather shocks.

The study, titled “Climate extremes, food price spikes, and their wider societal risks”, was carried out by a team of European researchers analysing dozens of climate-linked disruptions in the global food supply over the past three years.

The report shows that the type and extent of price hikes vary based on both the crop and the region affected. For instance, a severe drought across southern Europe between 2022 and 2023 led to a 50% increase in olive oil prices within a year across the European Union. Meanwhile, intense rainfall in the United Kingdom caused potato prices to surge 22% in early 2024.

East Asia was particularly hard hit by heat waves. Cabbage prices soared 70% in South Korea in September 2024. Japan saw vegetable prices jump 48%, and Chinese produce rose 30% during the summer months.

In Southeast Asia, Vietnam’s robusta coffee doubled in price in July 2024 after a heat wave earlier that year. A similar drought in Indonesia pushed rice prices up 16%. In South Asia, floods in Pakistan’s rural areas in August 2022 caused a 50% jump in food prices, while a heat wave in May 2024 triggered dramatic increases in Indian onion and potato prices, at 89% and 81% respectively.

Australia saw one of the most extreme cases when floods in 2022 caused lettuce prices to spike by 300%. In South Africa, heat waves in March 2024 drove up corn prices by 36%. Ethiopia's food prices rose 40% in 2023 due to drought the previous year.

In the United States, drought in California and Arizona in 2022 - two states responsible for more than 40% of the country’s vegetable output - resulted in an 80% increase in vegetable prices by November that year.

The impact has not been limited to national markets. Brazil, the world’s top coffee exporter, experienced a drought in 2023 that drove up global coffee prices by 55% in August 2024. A prolonged dry spell in Ghana and the Ivory Coast, which produce 60% of the world’s cocoa, caused cocoa prices to rise nearly 300% by April 2024.

Food security experts say such price spikes disproportionately affect poorer households. “Food inflation driven by climate impacts is pushing vulnerable communities into deeper hardship,” the report warned.

Higher food prices also contribute to overall inflation, particularly in developing economies where food makes up a larger share of household spending. This can put pressure on national healthcare systems and increase the demand for public assistance.

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