Drought over large parts of Europe raises concern

Latest data show dwindling river flows and worsening drought: these conditions are triggered by warmer-than-average weather and lower precipitation across much of the continent since the beginning of the year, according to the Drought in Europe – April 2025 report, published by the JRC.

With forecasts up to June showing drier-than-average conditions in northern and western Europe, there are growing concerns about the impact on agriculture river transport, and ecosystems, the report says. 

Driven by a lack of rainfall and above-average temperatures, central, eastern, and south-eastern Europe, as well as the eastern Mediterranean region, are experiencing broadening warning drought conditions. Similar conditions are emerging in north-western Europe.

Heat and low rainfall deplete soil and water reserves

Between January and March 2025, most of Europe experienced warmer-than-average conditions. In the Alps, eastern Europe, and northern Scandinavia mean temperatures were more than 3°C above normal. 

Scarce rainfall and intense heat dried out the land, leaving soils in the eastern Mediterranean and northern Africa significantly depleted of moisture.

Drought in Europe is affecting key rivers

Drought effects became more evident across European rivers by early April. Large areas in northern Europe and parts of the western Alps are currently the most affected regions. Eastern Mediterranean countries and western Russia are also showing signs of hydrological stress.

It is worth to highlight how in just a few weeks the conditions along the Rhine River changed significantly, with water levels dropping sharply in early April, especially in the upper basin. Following a dry winter and spring, reduced discharge is already impacting river navigation in the Middle Rhine. 

Dry anomalies and warning signs for the months ahead

Northern Germany, the Benelux countries, Denmark, southern Scandinavia, and much of the UK and Ireland recorded very dry conditions in March. Similar patterns were seen in southern Ukraine and central-to-eastern Türkiye. Compounded with dry conditions in the previous months, these trends raise concerns on how the situation may evolve later in spring and summer.

While vegetation across most of Europe appeared healthy by the end of March, stress signs are already visible in parts of northern Africa, western Syria, and south-eastern Türkiye. Early plant development may be masking vulnerabilities that could surface if drought conditions persist into the growing season.

Outlook suggests ongoing risks in several regions

Forecasts from April to June 2025 point to drier-than-average conditions in northern and western Europe, including the UK and Ireland. Wetter than average conditions are expected over the Iberian Peninsula, central Italy, the eastern Alps, and Greece. There is however some uncertainty in the forecast due to the variability of different modelling systems used. 

Rivers are likely to remain unusually low across eastern Europe through May, and water levels could drop even further. Across many areas low river flow is already affecting farming, ecosystems, energy production and transport. 

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