Climate change is threatening the sustainability of low Earth orbit, with new research from MIT revealing that shrinking atmospheric layers could significantly reduce the number of satellites able to operate safely by the end of the century.

Climate change is altering the environment of near-Earth space in ways that could significantly reduce the number of satellites able to safely operate in low Earth orbit by the century's end, according to a new study by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), as reported by Anadolu Agency.

Published in Nature Sustainability on Monday, the research reveals that greenhouse gas emissions are causing the upper atmosphere, particularly the thermosphere, to shrink. This is the region where the International Space Station and most satellites orbit.

As the thermosphere contracts, the thinning air reduces the natural drag that typically slows down old satellites and space debris, causing them to re-enter the atmosphere and burn up. With less drag, defunct satellites and space junk will remain in orbit for much longer, increasing collision risks and overcrowding in low Earth orbit.

Researchers project that by 2100, the capacity of key orbital regions could decrease by 50%-66% if emissions continue to rise. The study highlights the urgent need for emission reductions and careful management of satellite launches.

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