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The U.S. dollar has dropped to a three-month low amid growing concerns over slowing economic growth and the impact of new tariffs.
President Donald Trump’s recent move to impose a 25% tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada, along with a doubling of duties on Chinese products to 20%, took effect at 12:01 a.m. EST, weighing on the currency.
Despite expectations that increased tariffs might strengthen the dollar as fears of a trade war mount, weak domestic economic data and declining U.S. bond yields have kept the dollar under pressure. The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the currency against six major peers, fell 0.54% to 105.96, its lowest level since December.
Analysts noted that while tariffs are broadening to include more U.S. trading partners, soft domestic activity is hindering any potential rally. “While the U.S. is now broadening its tariff regime to Canada and Mexico, weak domestic U.S. activity is preventing the dollar from strengthening on the tariff news,” said Chris Turner, global head of markets at ING.
Investors have shifted to traditional safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, which saw gains of almost 1%, as uncertainty and fears of economic slowdown weighed on global markets. The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso also experienced modest declines following the tariff announcements, though market participants remain hopeful that the tariff hikes may be short-lived if negotiations lead to rapid relief.
In addition to these moves, China announced plans to impose further tariffs of 10-15% on certain U.S. imports starting March 10, while both Canada and Mexico have signaled retaliatory measures. The euro and sterling have risen as the absence of tariffs on European Union goods and a narrowing gap in bond yields have made them more attractive alternatives to the dollar. Meanwhile, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell to their lowest level since October at 4.115%.
Speculators have been betting on a continued rise of the yen, positioning themselves for potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, while China’s yuan has also seen a modest increase amid a strengthening bias in its daily official guidance.
U.S. President Donald Trump has said that the U.S is in talks with the new Iranian regime. He said this in a post on his Truth Social account but warned that the U.S. will "Obliterate" Iran's electric and oil facilities if no deal is reached, especially regarding the Strait of Hormuz closure.
The Iran-U.S.-Israel conflict is intensifying, with fresh strikes near Tehran, European calls for restraint, and Iran threatening to target U.S. firms in the region, raising fears of a broader escalation across the Middle East.
The war in Iran has rapidly upended regional security, triggering spillover across the Middle East and raising fears of wider economic disruption that could threaten globalisation.
The Israeli military said on Monday that Iran launched multiple waves of missiles at Israel, and an attack had also been launched from Yemen for the second time since the U.S.-Israeli war began on Tehran. It said two drones from Yemen were intercepted early 30 March but gave no further details.
Japan’s growing interest in Caspian crude reflects a pragmatic response to uncertainty in global energy markets and its continued reliance on the Middle East for more than 90% of its oil imports.
The U.S. national average retail price of petrol rose above $4 a gallon for the first time in over three years on Monday (30 March), according to GasBuddy data, as the U.S.–Israeli war with Iran continued to roil global energy markets.
Japan and Indonesia will deepen coordination on energy security, Tokyo said, as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran disrupts vital oil and gas flows to Asia.
China's three largest state-owned airlines have issued warnings regarding their financial outlook for the current year, acknowledging that the eruption of war involving Iran has driven jet fuel prices to unsustainable highs.
Stock markets across Asia fell on Monday as escalating conflict involving Iran drove oil prices sharply higher, fuelling fears of inflation and a potential global recession, with investors reacting to disruption risks in the Strait of Hormuz and prolonged hostilities.
World Trade Organization (WTO) talks broke up with no agreement on Monday on a plan for reform or even on extending a moratorium on e-commerce, piling more pressure on the trade body that finds itself increasingly sidelined by economic nationalism.
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