The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at Wednesday’s meeting.
It releases updated economic projections that could reveal whether policymakers now anticipate a path toward lower rates by year’s end despite mounting uncertainty from the new Trump administration’s policies.
At 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT), the Fed is scheduled to issue a policy statement alongside its latest projections, following a two-day meeting that has been scrutinizing how the economic outlook has shifted since President Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to hold a press conference half an hour later to discuss the implications of these updates.
Since taking office, President Trump has introduced a series of measures that include tariffs on Chinese imports and primary metals, with additional taxes on imports from key U.S. trading partners expected next month. Alongside these trade policies, the administration has also imposed immigration restrictions and initiated significant layoffs of federal employees, factors that have unsettled both stock and bond markets.
Policymakers had previously lowered the Fed’s benchmark rate by a full percentage point last year in response to easing inflation, with the expectation that rates would eventually move toward a neutral level that neither stimulates nor restrains economic activity. However, with early signals of falling confidence and a drop in government employment, questions remain about whether slower growth and higher inflation might ensue as a result of Trump's trade actions.
Investors currently anticipate that the Fed could implement two quarter-point rate cuts by year’s end, potentially bringing the overnight rate into the 3.75%-4.00% range. Yet, the emerging economic picture is more complex. The full scope of Trump’s tariff proposals remains uncertain, as the bulk of the measures—expected to impact countries such as Mexico and Canada as well as the global auto industry—is still taking shape. Additionally, looming debates over the federal debt ceiling, prospects for major tax cuts, and ongoing legal challenges add layers of uncertainty.
“The markets are reacting to the initial shock of these policies, and there's a growing concern that Trump's approach is engineering a ‘trade shock’ that could set the economy on a lower growth path,” said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard. “There is little that monetary policy can do to offset the adverse effects of a trade shock, except to counter rising unemployment and inflation.”
In recent data releases, the labor market has shown signs of strain, with the jobless rate edging up to 4.1% in February and the economy adding only 151,000 jobs. Meanwhile, inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target, with expectations that the reading for February might register a slight increase. Despite these challenges, Fed officials have maintained their focus on core monetary policy issues—namely inflation and unemployment—while refraining from direct commentary on the Trump administration’s broader economic policies.
Analysts believe that the Fed’s new projections, which include year-end estimates for overall growth, unemployment, inflation, and the benchmark interest rate from all 19 voting members, may now incorporate heightened uncertainty. Some policymakers have already started hinting at the difficult choices that might lie ahead if Trump’s tariff plans begin to drive up prices, slow growth, and increase unemployment.
“Even if the Fed doesn’t explicitly discuss administration policies, the language in these projections could signal that we are now more concerned about their potential impact,” said Steve Englander, head of macro research for North America at Standard Chartered.
As the meeting concludes and the new projections are released, investors and policymakers alike will be watching closely for clues about how the ongoing trade tensions and broader uncertainties will shape the economic landscape in the coming months.
The U.S. Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged on Wednesday at 4.25%–4.50%, while maintaining its projection for two rate cuts by the end of 2025.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered a forceful defense of the central bank’s response to the COVID-19 crisis on Sunday.
The U.S. Federal Reserve kept its benchmark federal funds rate unchanged on Wednesday, maintaining the target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, in a widely expected move as the central bank navigates a complex economic environment marked by slowing inflation, global trade tensions, and political pressure.
The U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at its policy meeting on Wednesday, as signs of easing inflation and continued job growth clash with increasing pressure from President Donald Trump to slash rates amid the first economic contraction in three years.
U.S. President Donald Trump expressed frustration with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, stating on Thursday that Powell's termination "cannot come fast enough."
Some Democratic and Republican lawmakers are urging Congress to limit President Donald Trump’s military actions in Iran, warning against deeper U.S. involvement in the escalating Middle East conflict.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that U.S. strikes hit entrances to tunnels storing part of Iran’s enriched uranium at the Isfahan nuclear site.
The Israeli military says Iran has launched missiles at Israel, following Israeli air strikes on military sites in Tehran, Karaj, and other parts of Iran. Iranian air defences have been activated in multiple locations amid escalating hostilities.
Global oil prices surged on Sunday as the Israel-Iran conflict continued to rattle markets, with Brent crude rising 3.9% to $80 per barrel and U.S. crude climbing 4.3% to $77 per barrel.
Tesla has begun a small-scale robotaxi trial in Austin, Texas, deploying about 10 self-driving cars to pick up paying passengers in a limited area, as the state enacts new regulations for autonomous vehicles.
Iranian missiles struck multiple locations across Israel and neighbouring regions early Friday morning, including a Microsoft office complex, according to emergency responders and local media reports.
A high-speed tram derailment in central Gothenburg, Sweden, has left at least eight people injured late on Thursday (19 June), after the vehicle slammed into a snack bar on Avenyn Avenue.
China has unveiled a mosquito-sized bionic drone designed for covert military operations and battlefield reconnaissance, marking a major advance in micro-robotics and stealth technology as part of the country’s growing focus on next-generation warfare capabilities.
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Germany’s federal government spent over 1.2 billion euros on software, licenses and IT services in 2024, more than 25% higher than the previous year.
Japan’s core inflation rose to a more than two-year high in May, exceeding the central bank’s 2% target for over three years and increasing pressure on the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to resume rate hikes.
Two Nigerian communities will take Shell to trial in the UK in 2027 after winning a court ruling over Niger Delta oil pollution.
The European Investment Bank (EIB) announced Friday it is raising its financing ceiling to a record €100 billion to accelerate investments in defence, energy security and Europe’s technological leadership.
Meta has teamed up with Oakley to release AI-powered smart glasses, expanding its push into wearable tech after the success of Ray-Ban Meta glasses. The social media company is expanding its partnership with Oakley and Ray-Ban-parent EssilorLuxottica.
Some Democratic and Republican lawmakers are urging Congress to limit President Donald Trump’s military actions in Iran, warning against deeper U.S. involvement in the escalating Middle East conflict.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that U.S. strikes hit entrances to tunnels storing part of Iran’s enriched uranium at the Isfahan nuclear site.
The Israeli military says Iran has launched missiles at Israel, following Israeli air strikes on military sites in Tehran, Karaj, and other parts of Iran. Iranian air defences have been activated in multiple locations amid escalating hostilities.
Global oil prices surged on Sunday as the Israel-Iran conflict continued to rattle markets, with Brent crude rising 3.9% to $80 per barrel and U.S. crude climbing 4.3% to $77 per barrel.
Tesla has begun a small-scale robotaxi trial in Austin, Texas, deploying about 10 self-driving cars to pick up paying passengers in a limited area, as the state enacts new regulations for autonomous vehicles.
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