China’s GDP grew 5% in 2024, reaching a record 134.9 trillion yuan ($18.77 trillion). While meeting government targets, growth remains one of the slowest in decades amid economic challenges, trade tensions, and skepticism over official data.
China’s economy expanded by 5% in 2024, with its gross domestic product (GDP) reaching a record 134.9 trillion yuan (approximately $18.77 trillion), according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in January 2025. While the growth rate met government expectations, it remains one of the slowest in decades, reflecting ongoing domestic and global economic challenges.
NBS head Kang Yi described the growth as "hard-won," highlighting China's resilience in the face of external pressures and domestic headwinds. However, independent analysts have expressed skepticism about the accuracy of China's economic data, pointing to low consumer inflation and weak tax revenues as indicators of a potentially weaker economic state than officially reported.
Drivers of Growth and Structural Challenges
The revival of domestic consumption played a key role in economic expansion, supported by government stimulus measures, including subsidies, tax incentives, and infrastructure investments. However, despite these efforts, many Chinese citizens report feeling worse off, as industrial and export-driven growth has not significantly boosted consumer well-being.
China’s high-tech industries saw notable expansion. Production of new energy vehicles, integrated circuits, and industrial robots increased by 38.7%, 22.2%, and 14.2%, respectively. Investment in high-tech industries rose by 8%, reflecting the government’s focus on technological advancement. However, concerns persist over the impact of US trade restrictions on semiconductor exports, which could challenge future growth in advanced manufacturing.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects continued to stimulate trade and investment ties, strengthening the country’s global economic influence. Meanwhile, the country’s export-driven growth model faced headwinds, with economists warning about the sustainability of trade-dependent expansion amid weak global demand. The potential for new US tariffs on Chinese goods adds further uncertainty.
Policy Measures and Economic Risks
Pro-growth government policies played a stabilising role in 2024. The policy package introduced after the Communist Party’s September 2024 meeting, combined with monetary easing, infrastructure spending, and support for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), helped to cushion economic fluctuations. Looking ahead, the government plans to adopt more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary measures in 2025 to expand domestic demand.
Despite these efforts, structural challenges persist. Youth unemployment remains elevated, while China’s property market downturn continues to impact consumer sentiment and financial stability. Additionally, the accuracy of China’s official economic data has been questioned by external analysts, who point to low inflation and tax revenue trends as signs that the real economy may be weaker than reported.
Looking Ahead: Growth Prospects for 2025
China aims to achieve stable and sustainable growth through structural reforms, technological innovation, and domestic market expansion. However, concerns over global demand, trade tensions, and internal economic risks remain key challenges.
A recent global opinion poll found that over 90% of respondents from 46 countries expressed optimism about China’s long-term growth prospects. However, foreign investor confidence remains mixed, with some concerns over regulatory unpredictability and market access restrictions. As China navigates economic transitions, its commitment to high-quality development and global engagement will be crucial in shaping its future economic trajectory.
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President Xi Jinping has announced a new $9 billion yuan-denominated credit line and expanded infrastructure investment for Latin America and the Caribbean, aiming to strengthen China's presence in the region while encouraging balanced and diversified cooperation.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) expects Türkiye’s economy to grow by 2.8% in 2025, a downgrade from its February 2025 forecast, due to weaker domestic and external demand and a tighter-than-expected monetary policy.
The Black Sea is transforming into a vital global hub for trade, energy, and logistics, and Türkiye is positioned at its center, according to Lazar Comanescu, Secretary General of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation Organization (BSEC).
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