France's political future in limbo

So what will happen next in France? President Emmanuel Macron faces crucial negotiations to form a new government, with two possible scenarios, and another third less likely to happen.

France could see several governments fall until the next National Assembly elections, which cannot be scheduled before July 2025 at the earliest. Before then, French President Emmanuel Macron has three scenarios ahead of him.

First, he might attempt to secure a majority by appealing to both conservative and centre-left MPs, possibly appointing a prime minister from those groups.
However, moderate left-wing MPs are unlikely to support him, preferring to stick with the New Popular Front alliance, which consists of left-wing parties aiming for progressive reforms.

The second scenario sees the New Popular Front, which holds the largest number of MPs, attempting to form a government. However, they lack an outright majority and would need to negotiate with centrist MPs, creating instability and uncertainty.

A third, less likely scenario would involve Macron re-appointing Michele Barnier, asking him to modify the budget to avoid another no-confidence vote.

Regardless of the outcome, political instability is expected to persist, with the possibility of multiple governments before the next National Assembly elections in July.

What ever happens, the next government will face significant pressure to reduce France's budget deficit. Currently it's above 5%—well over the EU's 3% target.
 

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