DIA: Russia eyes deeper role in Georgia, Abkhazia

The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, one of the most trusted branches of American defense analysis, has released its annual global threat assessment — and Georgia is firmly on its radar.

According to the report, Russia is “almost certainly” seeking to bring Georgia back into its sphere of influence. It notes that following Georgia’s October parliamentary elections, the ruling Georgian Dream party has shaped an environment that allows for deeper Russian involvement in the country.

The report also briefly addresses Armenia, citing worsening ties with Moscow and efforts by Russia to discredit Yerevan’s pro-Western leadership.

This broader picture of Russian influence extends directly to Georgia’s occupied territories. In Abkhazia, the de facto leadership continues to align closely with Moscow. Speaking to Russian state media at the Caucasus Investment Forum in Russia’s Mineralnie Vody, Abkhazia’s de facto President, Badra Gunba, praised the presence of Russian military forces, calling them essential for “peace and stability.” He highlighted cooperation with Russia’s Defense Ministry and the significance of both the 7th military base and Russian Federal Security Service border units stationed in the region.

Around the same time, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov met with Abkhazia’s de facto defense chief, describing Abkhazia as a “reliable ally” and underlining efforts to create a joint defense space within the framework of their strategic partnership.

The statements reflect ongoing shifts in regional alignments, as Moscow strengthens ties with breakaway entities while distancing itself from Armenia’s pro-Western government.

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