A new report from the International Energy Agency warns that most critical minerals for clean energy are now controlled by a few countries, especially China, risking supply disruptions and higher prices globally.

The Paris-based agency’s report highlights key minerals like copper, lithium, cobalt, graphite, and rare earth elements — all vital for shifting away from fossil fuels toward renewable energy and electric power. It shows that in 2024, the top three producers of these minerals controlled an average 86% of the market, up from 82% in 2020.

China stands out as the dominant player, refining 19 out of 20 strategic minerals studied and holding about 75% of the refining market share. Indonesia also showed strong growth in nickel production, important for steel and electric vehicle batteries.

The report warns that rising export restrictions and trade tensions increase the risk of supply shocks, which could lead to higher costs for consumers and reduce competitiveness for industries worldwide.

“Critical mineral supply chains are vulnerable to shocks caused by weather, technical failures, or trade disputes,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. He pointed to recent examples like Europe’s energy crisis after Russia cut natural gas supplies, and the global chip shortage that disrupted car production during the pandemic.

Birol emphasized the need for supply diversification, saying, “It’s not only about energy security but also economic security.” While market forces play a role, he called for strong government policies including funding and incentives to develop new mineral sources.

China’s dominant role extends across a wide range of critical minerals used in technologies such as computer chips, electric vehicles, batteries, drones, and military equipment. The country has tightened export controls amid escalating trade tensions with the United States, complicating U.S. efforts to secure alternative supplies.

U.S. President Donald Trump has made reducing reliance on foreign minerals a key goal during his first 100 days in office, linking it to national security and economic resilience. His administration recently secured access to Ukraine’s mineral reserves and is pushing for accelerated deep-sea mining despite environmental concerns.

Trump has also issued orders to boost domestic copper production, speed up mining permits, and explore deals with mineral-rich countries like Congo and Greenland.

Despite current supply levels and generally falling prices, the IEA warns that copper production will not meet demand, forecasting a 30% shortfall by 2030. Copper is essential for electric wiring and power grids critical to clean energy infrastructure.

The report underscores the urgent need for global cooperation and strategic planning to secure the minerals vital for a sustainable energy future.

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