Polish centrist Trzaskowski slightly ahead in presidential vote, exit poll shows

Centrist candidate Rafal Trzaskowski led the first round of Poland’s presidential election on Sunday, edging ahead of nationalist rival Karol Nawrocki and setting up a high-stakes runoff that will determine whether Poland stays on a pro-European course or shifts toward a more nationalist path

Rafal Trzaskowski of Poland’s centrist Civic Coalition (KO) narrowly led the first round of the country’s presidential election on Sunday, according to an Ipsos exit poll, setting the stage for a tight runoff that could shape Poland’s future direction in Europe.

Trzaskowski garnered 30.8% of the vote, just ahead of Karol Nawrocki, the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party’s candidate, who received 29.1%. If confirmed by official results, both candidates will face off in a decisive second round on June 1.

The outcome will determine whether Poland continues along the pro-European path supported by Prime Minister Donald Tusk or leans further toward nationalist policies favored by supporters of former U.S. President Donald Trump.

“We’re aiming for victory. I said it would be close — and it is,” Trzaskowski told supporters, urging continued determination ahead of the runoff.

Nawrocki also expressed optimism, telling his backers he was confident of winning in the second round.

Poland’s president holds the power to veto legislation. A Trzaskowski win would give Tusk’s government the support needed to roll back judicial reforms pushed by PiS, which critics say weakened judicial independence. A Nawrocki presidency, however, would likely extend the political deadlock that has persisted since Tusk took office in 2023, due to outgoing President Andrzej Duda’s consistent opposition to government reforms.

With the top two candidates advancing, other first-round contenders — including far-right Confederation’s Slawomir Mentzen, centre-right Poland 2050’s Szymon Hołownia, and the Left’s Magdalena Biejat — will be eliminated.

Updated polls based on partial results are expected later Sunday evening and Monday morning.

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