Trump expected to keep tariffs high even after trade deals, say advisers

High tariffs are expected to remain a core feature of Donald Trump's trade policy even after new trade agreements are reached, according to several current and former advisers who spoke with Reuters.

Despite internal differences over the theory behind tariffs, most advisers agree the U.S. will emerge from ongoing trade negotiations with elevated duties on imports.

Trump’s recent imposition of tariffs last month has roiled global markets, angered trade partners, and contributed to a slowdown in the world economy. The U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter of 2025—the first time since 2022—as trade weighed heavily on growth. Opinion polls show growing voter concern over Trump’s tariff strategy and overall economic management.

Stephen Miran, chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, told Reuters that Trump is redefining U.S. trade strategy and argued that volatility in markets and data is temporary. He supported the idea of an “optimal tariff rate” that could boost both tax revenue and economic performance. While Miran previously published a paper suggesting a 20% tariff rate could benefit the U.S., he clarified the paper predated his current role and does not represent administration policy.

Peter Navarro, Trump’s senior counselor for trade and manufacturing, also backed the concept of an optimal tariff. He argued tariffs could correct trade imbalances and bring back jobs, calling current efforts “the last chance” to reverse decades of unfair trade.

On Friday, Trump signaled further escalation, saying tariffs of 80% on Chinese goods “seems right,” just ahead of planned trade talks with Beijing. A limited bilateral deal with the UK announced Thursday kept a 10% tariff on British exports, while easing restrictions on cars and agriculture.

However, economists remain deeply divided. Nouriel Roubini, known for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, said under a baseline scenario with average tariffs at 10%—and 60% on China—inflation could rise to 4%, potentially triggering a recession by year’s end. He warned that higher tariffs could result in a deeper global downturn.

Former Treasury official Lawrence Summers also cautioned that broad-based tariffs could lead to a recession, noting there may be limited cases for targeted tariffs but not for sweeping restrictions.

Trump’s aggressive trade stance—long a feature of his political identity—has become more potent in his second term. According to former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, the administration has discovered extensive executive powers to impose tariffs unilaterally. Trump now wields greater control over Congress and the Republican Party, giving him freer rein to link tariffs to issues such as national security and fentanyl trafficking.

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