Philippines stands to benefit from US tariff shake-up, but must address constraints, study shows

The Philippines faces the lightest blow from Washington’s new tariff regime—just 17 % on average and with a third of its exports exempt—positioning Manila to lure trade and investment diverted from harder-hit neighbours, a Philippine Institute for Development Studies report says.

A Tariff Exposure Composite Index compiled by the Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) puts Manila’s overall risk at “moderate,” with an average U.S. duty of just 17 % — the smallest among the five countries surveyed (Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines).

Although the Philippines has not escaped the trade friction sparked by President Donald Trump’s import taxes, its exposure is limited by generous exemptions: roughly one-third of Philippine shipments to the United States — mainly semiconductors, memory chips and storage devices — remain duty-free. By contrast, Indonesia pays a 32 % tariff and secures exemptions on only about 10 % of its exports, even though both nations share the same composite risk score of 2.2.

Vietnam and Thailand face far steeper headline tariffs of 46 % and 36 %, respectively, though those rates have been suspended until July. They also rank higher on the PIDS risk index, at 3.4 and 3.0, reflecting heavier reliance on the U.S. market and thinner exemption coverage.

Malaysia places second-best after the Philippines, with a 24 % duty and the region’s widest shield: exemptions protect nearly 46 % of its U.S. sales, largely in electronics and semiconductor equipment, giving it a risk score of 2.8.

Despite the advantage, PIDS warns the Philippines still trails Malaysia and Vietnam in manufacturing scale, logistics and its ability to absorb fresh investment. “The Philippines is strategically positioned to benefit,” wrote study author and former trade undersecretary Rafaelita Aldaba. “Its low tariff rate, strong exemptions for key exports and moderate exposure create an opportunity to attract trade and investment shifts. But real gains will hinge on rapid improvements in logistics, investment facilitation and targeted export promotion.”

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