Trade war reshapes global LPG flows as China swaps U.S. supply

China’s pivot away from U.S. liquefied petroleum gas under new tariffs is shaking global energy flows, slashing demand, and fuelling a scramble for alternatives across Asia, with Middle Eastern suppliers and rival buyers seizing the moment.

The global market for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is undergoing a dramatic reordering as Chinese buyers pull away from U.S. cargoes ahead of new tariffs, opting instead for alternatives from the Middle East. The shift is already dragging down U.S. prices and redrawing shipping routes across Asia and Europe.

The tariff move, effective May 14, is the latest blow in a widening trade dispute between Washington and Beijing. China, once a leading customer for American propane and ethane, is now racing to reroute contracts. That’s sending shockwaves through the supply chain — from Texas shale fields to Chinese petrochemical plants.

American shale drillers, facing oversupply at home, rely on overseas demand for profitability. Meanwhile, Chinese firms have built their production around cheap U.S. feedstocks. Now both sides are set to lose ground.

“There’s a certain amount of flows that could be redirected, but you can’t shift 400,000 barrels per day to just any market,” said Julian Renton of East Daley Analytics.

China, the second-largest buyer of U.S. LPG after Japan, imported 17.3 million tonnes of American propane last year — around 60% of its total LPG imports, customs data show. A sudden loss of that supply will leave a sizeable gap.

Winners and losers

As China pivots, others are stepping in. India, Japan, and South Korea have increased purchases of discounted U.S. LPG. April shipments to Japan nearly doubled, according to ship-tracker Kpler. Middle Eastern producers, meanwhile, are enjoying a price premium in China, as tight supply pushes costs $30–$60 above Saudi Contract Price — double what it was before the tariffs.

“Winners should be all other buyers and Middle East exporters,” said Cheryl Liu of Energy Aspects. “Losers, I would say, both China and the U.S.”

Indian refiners, for example, have asked suppliers to swap their long-term Middle East contracts with cheaper U.S. cargoes. Japanese traders are also capitalising on the discount, snapping up shipments for late April and May.

But there’s a limit. Chinese importers are resisting swap fees above $50 per tonne for second-half May arrivals, even as sellers continue to demand higher premiums. Meanwhile, ethane buyers — reliant solely on U.S. supply — are seeking waivers from Beijing to avoid disruption to their operations.

Market impact

The Energy Information Administration expects U.S. exports to China to fall by around 200,000 barrels per day over the coming months. That could drive up inventories at home, putting fresh pressure on already-softening prices.

Energy Aspects estimates China’s LPG demand could shrink by 150,000 bpd in the second half of 2025. To fill the gap, naphtha use is projected to rise by nearly the same amount — 140,000 bpd. But that won’t fully compensate for the missing U.S. cargoes.

According to Argus Media, the actual supply shortfall may be as high as 1 million tonnes per month.

As the trade war reverberates, the reshuffling is not just about who buys what — it’s redrawing the competitive landscape. For now, China and the U.S. are paying the price, while the rest of Asia cashes in. But with global demand rising and the market already tight, the new balance may prove short-lived.

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