Germany votes as conservatives lead, far-right surges

Germans head to the polls in a national election expected to return Friedrich Merz’s conservatives to power while giving the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) its best-ever result, marking a significant rightward shift in Europe’s largest economy.

Germany votes on Sunday in a national election that could see a shift in the country’s leadership, with Friedrich Merz’s CDU/CSU bloc leading the polls but unlikely to secure a majority. Coalition negotiations are expected to be complex, as political divisions over migration and the role of the far-right AfD remain deep.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz, whose coalition collapsed last November, could remain in a caretaker role for months, delaying economic policies aimed at reviving Germany’s struggling economy. Two consecutive years of contraction, along with concerns over U.S. trade policies under Donald Trump, have raised fears about Germany’s economic future.

The election takes place against a backdrop of rising voter discontent, with pessimism over living standards at its highest since the 2008 financial crisis. Public sentiment on migration has also hardened, a stark contrast to Germany’s "Refugees Welcome" stance in 2015.

The AfD, founded 12 years ago, is on track to finish in second place for the first time in a national election. The party has received unexpected support from U.S. figures, including Vice President JD Vance and billionaire Elon Musk, who have criticised European migration policies.

Despite its gains, the AfD is unlikely to enter government, as mainstream parties continue to reject cooperation. However, analysts suggest its growing influence could pave the way for a stronger showing in 2029.

Coalition talks are expected to be lengthy, with analysts predicting a renewed "grand coalition" between Merz’s conservatives and Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD), or a more complex three-way coalition if smaller parties secure enough votes to enter parliament.

EU leaders are cautiously optimistic that the elections could lead to a more stable German government capable of advancing domestic and European policies. Some also hope Merz will reform Germany’s restrictive debt brake, which critics argue has hindered public investment.

With political fragmentation on the rise, voters remain divided. "A lot of my friends are voting for the conservatives because this government didn’t work so well, and Merz’s international standing is quite good," said civil servant Mike Zeller, 26. "I just hope enough parties agree on a government so they can leave the AfD out."

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