The risk of an asteroid impact on Earth has doubled within a week, though there are currently no plans to build a deflection spacecraft for the 90-metre-wide space rock.
The asteroid, designated 2024 YR4, was first detected two days after it passed Earth on Christmas Day 2024 by a telescope in Chile. Latest calculations indicate a 2.3% chance of impact on December 22, 2032, nearly double the 1.2% risk estimated last week.
Monitoring the Threat
Any impact probability above 1% for an asteroid larger than 50 meters prompts a global expert discussion. NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) have placed 2024 YR4 at the top of their asteroid risk registers.
NASA estimates that 2024 YR4 weighs nearly a quarter of a million tonnes and could explode with the force of 2.2 million tonnes of TNT, equivalent to 150 times the Hiroshima atomic bomb.
Potential Impact Locations
While the UK is not at risk, potential impact zones include:
- Western African cities such as Lagos and Accra
- Mumbai, India
- South American countries, including Venezuela and Colombia
If it were to strike, the asteroid could flatten a city, causing local devastation. A similar-sized asteroid impacted Siberia in 1908, flattening 1,000 square miles of forest.
Future Observations and Risk Assessment
Astronomers will continue tracking the asteroid until it disappears from view in May, refining predictions about its trajectory and potential threat. While ongoing observations have increased the estimated risk, officials anticipate that further analysis will likely reduce the probability to zero.
Currently, the 2.3% risk is comparable to randomly drawing the ace of spades from a full deck or rolling two sixes with two dice, meaning the likelihood of an actual impact remains low.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 has a very small chance of hitting Earth, as new observations showed that it has been downgraded to "No Hazard" Level on the Torino impact scale, a tool for categorizing the impact hazard associated with near-Earth objects such as asteroids and comets.
NASA has raised the probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 striking Earth in 2032 to 3.1%, making it the most threatening space rock recorded in modern forecasting. While the risk is still low, experts emphasize the need for continued monitoring.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin has agreed in principle to a 30-day ceasefire proposal from U.S. President Donald Trump, aimed at reducing hostilities in Ukraine. While the ceasefire presents a potential opportunity for peace talks and humanitarian aid, the terms are still under negotiation.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed support for U.S. proposals for a ceasefire in Ukraine, but insists that any agreement must address the root causes of the conflict to ensure lasting peace.
A U.S. judge has directed Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to provide records and answer questions about their federal spending reduction efforts. The order stems from a lawsuit filed by 14 Democratic state attorneys general, alleging constitutional violations by Musk.
Foreign ministers from the world’s leading democracies meet in Canada to navigate rising tensions with the U.S., as Trump’s policies on Ukraine, tariffs, and Russia spark divisions. Diplomats seek common ground while confronting Washington's unpredictability.
The UK has withdrawn accreditation for a Russian diplomat and a diplomatic spouse, requiring them to leave the country, following the expulsion of two British officials from Russia on Monday.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has agreed in principle to a 30-day ceasefire proposal from U.S. President Donald Trump, aimed at reducing hostilities in Ukraine. While the ceasefire presents a potential opportunity for peace talks and humanitarian aid, the terms are still under negotiation.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed support for U.S. proposals for a ceasefire in Ukraine, but insists that any agreement must address the root causes of the conflict to ensure lasting peace.
A U.S. judge has directed Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to provide records and answer questions about their federal spending reduction efforts. The order stems from a lawsuit filed by 14 Democratic state attorneys general, alleging constitutional violations by Musk.
Foreign ministers from the world’s leading democracies meet in Canada to navigate rising tensions with the U.S., as Trump’s policies on Ukraine, tariffs, and Russia spark divisions. Diplomats seek common ground while confronting Washington's unpredictability.
The UK has withdrawn accreditation for a Russian diplomat and a diplomatic spouse, requiring them to leave the country, following the expulsion of two British officials from Russia on Monday.
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