The United Nations has warned that an ongoing Ebola outbreak in Central Africa could cost the continent up to $3.6 billion and put as many as 328,000 jobs at risk if it is not brought under control.
The assessment, released on Tuesday, highlights the potential economic and social consequences of the Bundibugyo strain of Ebola, for which there is currently no tested vaccine or treatment.
According to the government of the Democratic Republic of Congo, 1,307 people have been infected and 377 have died since the outbreak was declared on 15 May.
A smaller number of cases have also been reported in Uganda, with health experts warning of a risk of further spread to neighbouring countries, including South Sudan.
Damien Mama, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Resident Representative in Congo, said rapid intervention could still prevent a wider crisis.
“If we have the resources and we step up, we can contain this outbreak and prevent further losses,” he said.
He warned that, without an adequate response, the outbreak could develop into a prolonged regional development crisis.
The UNDP outlined several scenarios for the outbreak's economic impact.
In the most optimistic scenario, in which the outbreak remains contained within the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda, the economic cost would amount to around $1 billion in lost GDP for Congo alone.
However, in a worst-case scenario in which the disease spreads to additional countries such as Rwanda and Angola, while coinciding with rising fuel costs linked to wider geopolitical tensions, continental GDP losses could reach $3.6 billion.
Under that scenario, the report estimates that up to 328,000 jobs could be lost across Africa.
Health experts have cautioned that porous borders and limited healthcare capacity in affected regions increase the risk of cross-border transmission.
The UN has stressed that swift funding, coordinated action and medical support will be critical to preventing the outbreak from escalating into a broader economic and humanitarian crisis.
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