Japan faces political uncertainty as voters head to the polls

Japan’s upper house election on Sunday could weaken Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s authority, with public frustration over inflation and immigration shifting support toward opposition parties.

Japanese voters are casting ballots in a closely watched upper house election that could reshape the country’s political landscape and shake Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s control of government.

With half of the 248-seat upper house at stake, opinion polls indicate that Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior coalition partner Komeito risk falling short of the 50 seats needed to maintain a majority.

Public anger over rising living costs and immigration has fuelled support for smaller opposition parties advocating tax cuts and increased public spending. Among them is the nationalist Sanseito party, which is campaigning against foreign investment and gender equality reforms.

Analysts warn that a weak showing for the coalition could erode investor confidence in the world’s fourth-largest economy and complicate urgent trade talks with the United States. Japan faces an August 1 deadline to finalise a deal or face tariffs in its largest export market.

These potential levies could further burden the economy, already strained by inflation that has seen staples such as rice nearly double in price over the past year.

While the LDP has resisted calls for sweeping tax cuts, the opposition is pressing for more aggressive fiscal support to ease the cost-of-living crisis. Ishiba’s government has instead emphasised fiscal discipline to calm the volatile government bond market.

This vote follows the LDP’s poor performance in the October lower house election, its worst in 15 years, which cost it a majority and increased Ishiba’s exposure to no-confidence motions.

A fragmented result could force Ishiba to make policy concessions or step aside for new leadership, depending on coalition negotiations.

Voting concludes at 8 p.m. local time, with media projections expected shortly after, based on exit poll data.

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