China’s exports are expected to have grown 5% in June as manufacturers hurried goods abroad ahead of a 12 August deadline that could see the U.S. restore punitive tariffs, a Reuters survey of economists indicates.

Outbound shipments are forecast to have risen more than May’s 4.8% gain, the median estimate of 23 analysts showed in the report. Imports are tipped to rebound by 1.3% after a 3.4% slide, signalling modest recovery in domestic demand following stimulus unveiled late last year, according to the poll.

Trade officials are due to release the figures in Beijing on Monday at about 03:00 GMT. Economists predict a goods surplus of $109 billion, up from $103.22 billion in May, underlining China’s continued reliance on overseas sales even as diplomatic headwinds mount.

According to the report, June’s acceleration is widely attributed to exporters “front-loading” orders in case a 90-day tariff ceasefire agreed with Washington in May collapses. U.S. President Donald Trump has warned he could re-impose duties of up to 40% on Chinese goods and levy a 10% charge on imports from BRICS states “pretty soon,” raising the risk of broader trade disruption.

Frictions resurfaced last month when the White House accused Beijing of delaying a pledge to ease curbs on rare-earth shipments—materials vital to defence and electronics industries. Talks in London later revived the truce, but analysts at Nomura caution that export growth “will likely slow sharply in the second half” as elevated tariffs, tighter U.S. scrutiny of trans-shipments via Vietnam and strained ties with the European Union bite.

Brussels, preparing for a summit this month, says Chinese over-capacity is flooding global markets and limiting European firms’ access to the mainland. Beijing’s move to exempt major cognac producers from threatened duties has done little to ease concern, especially over Chinese electric-vehicle sales in Europe.

With external demand wobbling, Beijing has leaned on tax breaks and credit support to shore up consumption. Yet economists say shipments remain a pillar of activity. Vietnam—now China’s second-largest export market—saw a surge in Chinese parts and finished goods last year as firms sought to reroute trade.

Should negotiations fail, analysts expect producers to face higher costs and weaker orders just as policymakers struggle to keep overall growth near the government’s 2025 target of “around 5%”.

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