The U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has released its latest forecast on the budgetary and income distribution impacts of the tax reform bill dubbed “The Great Beautiful Bill,” approved on 22 May in the House of Representatives under President Donald Trump.
According to the CBO analysis, if the bill is enacted, average disposable income for U.S. households is expected to increase over the 2026–2034 period. However, this increase will not be evenly distributed across all income groups. Households in the lowest income bracket are projected to see a decrease in resources, while those in the middle and higher income brackets will experience income growth.
The analysis shows that the lowest 10% income group is expected to face an average annual decline of $1,589 (about 3.9%), whereas the highest 10% income group is projected to see an annual increase of $12,044, equivalent to roughly a 2.3% rise.
The CBO noted that the loss of resources among poorer households mainly stems from cuts to Medicaid and food assistance programs, while tax cuts drive income gains in the higher-income groups.
In a separate report, the CBO also forecasted that the bill would increase the federal budget deficit by $2.4 trillion through 2034.
The bill was passed in the House by a narrow margin of just one vote. Introduced by Republicans to implement the tax cuts promised during Trump’s election campaign, the bill passed with 215 votes in favour and 214 against, and has now been sent to the Senate.
The bill includes provisions to increase state and local tax deductions, eliminate taxes on tips and overtime pay, and extend the duration of tax cuts enacted in 2017.
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