S&P revises Uzbekistan's outlook to positive amid reform progress and economic resilience

S&P Global Ratings has revised Uzbekistan’s outlook to positive from stable, affirming its 'BB-/B' ratings. The change reflects steady economic reforms, resilient growth, and support from high gold prices, which are helping stabilize the country’s fiscal and external positions.

S&P Global Ratings upgraded Uzbekistan’s outlook to positive, citing ongoing structural reforms, robust domestic demand, and high gold prices as key factors boosting growth and fiscal stability. The agency affirmed the country's 'BB-/B' long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings.

Uzbekistan’s economy is projected to grow by 5.6% on average through 2028, driven by government-led investment, labor remittances, and energy sector reforms. Plans to gradually increase energy tariffs and reduce subsidies are expected to lower the fiscal deficit from 4.9% of GDP in 2023 to around 3% over the medium term.

Rising gold exports are enhancing fiscal revenues and foreign exchange reserves. While public debt is increasing due to infrastructure spending, it is expected to remain manageable, reaching 34% of GDP by 2028.

However, risks remain due to centralized governance, dependence on commodity exports, and exposure to external shocks.

S&P noted that continued reforms and efforts to strengthen fiscal discipline could lead to a rating upgrade. Conversely, slower growth or rising deficits may stabilize the outlook.

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