EU climate advisers are urging the bloc to stay firm on its 2040 climate target, warning that shortcuts could jeopardize long-term progress.

As the European Commission prepares to unveil a legally binding climate target of cutting emissions by 90% by 2040 (compared to 1990 levels), internal discussions are ongoing about potentially lowering the target or allowing international carbon credits to ease the pressure on domestic industries. The European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change (ESABCC) has pushed back strongly against this, cautioning that relying on overseas carbon offsets could weaken Europe's economic transformation.

In their latest analysis, the ESABCC emphasized that using international credits—such as funding reforestation in Brazil—might divert funds away from essential investments in local infrastructure and industry. While advocates argue that such credits help finance carbon-cutting projects in developing countries, the EU previously banned them in 2013 after a flood of ineffective credits crashed the carbon market.

Despite economic and geopolitical challenges, the ESABCC reiterated its 2023 recommendation of a 90–95% emissions cut by 2040, calling it both realistic and vital for meeting global climate goals. Achieving this would require a near-zero emissions power sector and the widespread electrification of heavy industry, yielding health, economic, and energy security benefits.

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