Washington, D.C., February 24, 2025 – Research released by the San Francisco Fed on Monday reveals that investors and economists expect the U.S. central bank to respond “strongly and systematically” to shifts in inflation and labor market conditions.
The analysis, which examined professional forecasts and bond market movements, indicates that market participants have grown increasingly sensitive to U.S. economic data - especially since 2022.
The study notes that although inflation began rising in 2021, the Fed did not initiate interest rate hikes until 2022. Similarly, deteriorating labor market data in mid-2022 spurred the Fed to reduce the policy rate by a full percentage point starting last September. Currently, the Fed’s target rate stands between 4.25% and 4.50%.
Recent economic indicators, including a survey showing business activity falling to a 17-month low, have bolstered market expectations of two quarter-percentage-point rate cuts later this year. Interest rate futures suggest that the first rate cut could come as early as June, with a second possible as early as October.
Analysts point out that concerns over slowing economic growth are now overshadowing fears of a resurgence in inflation, influencing the anticipated Fed policy moves. The findings underscore the central bank’s readiness to adjust monetary policy in response to evolving economic conditions, as financial markets continue to closely monitor U.S. economic data.
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U.S. stock markets finished mixed on Wednesday (28 January) as investors reacted calmly after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, a decision that had been widely expected and largely priced in.
U.S. industrial production rose by 0.1% in September, rebounding after a decline in August, while capacity utilisation remained unchanged, according to Federal Reserve data on Wednesday.
Broad market stocks experienced slight declines during the day, according to Alexander Morris, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of F/M Investments.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday reduced its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point to a range of 4–4.25%, responding to slowing economic growth and persistently high inflation.
Ukraine is monitoring “unusual activity” along its border with Belarus, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a video statement released on Saturday (2 May). He warned that Kyiv is ready to respond if necessary amid continued regional tensions linked to Russia’s war.
China has moved to block U.S. sanctions on five of its oil refineries, in a fresh escalation of tensions over trade and energy policy.
U.S. President Donald Trump has said he will “soon be reviewing” a new 14-point proposal sent by Iran, casting doubt on the chances of a deal after Tehran called for security guarantees, an end to naval blockades and a halt to the war across the region, including in Lebanon.
Malian authorities have launched an investigation into suspected soldiers accused of involvement in coordinated attacks on military bases carried out by militants linked to al Qaeda and separatist Tuareg rebels on 25 April 2026.
Ukraine has launched a new wave of drone strikes on Sunday (3 May) across Russia, hitting key infrastructure and causing casualties in several regions, officials on both sides said.
U.S. President Donald Trump has said he will raise tariffs on cars and trucks imported from the European Union to 25% next week, up from the 15% level agreed last year, accusing the bloc of failing to comply with its trade commitments.
The decision by the United Arab Emirates to leave OPEC+ on 1 May has put renewed focus on one of the most influential groups in global energy - and how its decisions can shape oil prices worldwide.
The United Arab Emirates has said it's quitting OPEC from 1 May, dealing a major blow to the oil producers’ group and its de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, amid disruption caused by the Iran war.
As the Iran war disrupts global flows of oil and gas and energy prices skyrocket, the Drin River, which descends through the mountains of northern Albania, is acting as a kind of shield.
China has ordered Meta to unwind its more than $2 billion acquisition of artificial intelligence start-up Manus, marking a major escalation in Beijing’s scrutiny of foreign investment in sensitive technology sectors. The order was issued on Monday by the National Development and Reform Commission.
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