Washington, D.C., February 24, 2025 – Research released by the San Francisco Fed on Monday reveals that investors and economists expect the U.S. central bank to respond “strongly and systematically” to shifts in inflation and labor market conditions.
The analysis, which examined professional forecasts and bond market movements, indicates that market participants have grown increasingly sensitive to U.S. economic data - especially since 2022.
The study notes that although inflation began rising in 2021, the Fed did not initiate interest rate hikes until 2022. Similarly, deteriorating labor market data in mid-2022 spurred the Fed to reduce the policy rate by a full percentage point starting last September. Currently, the Fed’s target rate stands between 4.25% and 4.50%.
Recent economic indicators, including a survey showing business activity falling to a 17-month low, have bolstered market expectations of two quarter-percentage-point rate cuts later this year. Interest rate futures suggest that the first rate cut could come as early as June, with a second possible as early as October.
Analysts point out that concerns over slowing economic growth are now overshadowing fears of a resurgence in inflation, influencing the anticipated Fed policy moves. The findings underscore the central bank’s readiness to adjust monetary policy in response to evolving economic conditions, as financial markets continue to closely monitor U.S. economic data.
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U.S. stock markets finished mixed on Wednesday (28 January) as investors reacted calmly after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, a decision that had been widely expected and largely priced in.
U.S. industrial production rose by 0.1% in September, rebounding after a decline in August, while capacity utilisation remained unchanged, according to Federal Reserve data on Wednesday.
Broad market stocks experienced slight declines during the day, according to Alexander Morris, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of F/M Investments.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday reduced its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point to a range of 4–4.25%, responding to slowing economic growth and persistently high inflation.
One U.S. crew member has been rescued after two American warplanes were downed over Iran and the Gulf, as the search continues for a missing pilot, while President Donald Trump has given Tehran 48 hours to agree to a deal to end the war.
The U.N. Security Council is expected to vote next week on a Bahraini resolution to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and protect commercial shipping, diplomats said on Friday, amid opposition from China to any authorisation of force.
The U.S. rescued an airman missing from one of two warplanes downed in Iran, two U.S. officials said, as President Donald Trump and Israel stepped up pressure on Iran to open the strategic Strait of Hormuz or face attacks on energy facilities.
The family of the late Virginia Giuffre have urged King Charles III to meet survivors of sexual abuse during his upcoming state visit to the United States.
Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis reshuffled his cabinet on Friday (3 April) in a bid to contain a growing scandal over the alleged fraudulent use of European Union farm subsidies.
Major automakers showcased new electric vehicles at the New York Auto Show this week, under the slogan “electrification is the future." However, weakening demand in the United States and intense competition with China are raising questions for markets across the globe, including the South Caucasus.
The U.S. national average retail price of petrol rose above $4 a gallon for the first time in over three years on Monday (30 March), according to GasBuddy data, as the U.S.–Israeli war with Iran continued to roil global energy markets.
Japan and Indonesia will deepen coordination on energy security, Tokyo said, as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran disrupts vital oil and gas flows to Asia.
China's three largest state-owned airlines have issued warnings regarding their financial outlook for the current year, acknowledging that the eruption of war involving Iran has driven jet fuel prices to unsustainable highs.
Stock markets across Asia fell on Monday as escalating conflict involving Iran drove oil prices sharply higher, fuelling fears of inflation and a potential global recession, with investors reacting to disruption risks in the Strait of Hormuz and prolonged hostilities.
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