Washington, D.C., February 24, 2025 – Research released by the San Francisco Fed on Monday reveals that investors and economists expect the U.S. central bank to respond “strongly and systematically” to shifts in inflation and labor market conditions.
The analysis, which examined professional forecasts and bond market movements, indicates that market participants have grown increasingly sensitive to U.S. economic data - especially since 2022.
The study notes that although inflation began rising in 2021, the Fed did not initiate interest rate hikes until 2022. Similarly, deteriorating labor market data in mid-2022 spurred the Fed to reduce the policy rate by a full percentage point starting last September. Currently, the Fed’s target rate stands between 4.25% and 4.50%.
Recent economic indicators, including a survey showing business activity falling to a 17-month low, have bolstered market expectations of two quarter-percentage-point rate cuts later this year. Interest rate futures suggest that the first rate cut could come as early as June, with a second possible as early as October.
Analysts point out that concerns over slowing economic growth are now overshadowing fears of a resurgence in inflation, influencing the anticipated Fed policy moves. The findings underscore the central bank’s readiness to adjust monetary policy in response to evolving economic conditions, as financial markets continue to closely monitor U.S. economic data.
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Britain's King Charles has called on the world to work toward lasting peace and preventing future wars during a speech marking the end of four days of events celebrating the 80th anniversary of Victory in Europe (VE) Day.
Before becoming Pope Leo XIV, Cardinal Robert Prevost shared rare insights on faith, unity, and modern challenges in a few candid interviews.
A humanitarian ship carrying 20,000 tons of Ukrainian wheat docked in Samsun, Türkiye, on Thursday, marking a major World Food Program initiative to supply crisis-hit regions, including Syria.
North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un supervised a missile test on Thursday, emphasizing the nation's nuclear combat readiness, according to state media KCNA.
EU foreign ministers will visit Lviv, Ukraine, on May 9 to discuss defense support and endorse plans for a tribunal on war crimes and aggression.
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