On Sunday, U.S. President Donald Trump urged China to greatly boost soybean imports from the U.S. to help reduce its trade deficit. However, experts say a sharp increase is unlikely due to ongoing trade tensions and China’s changing buying habits.
Trump's remarks came as a tariff truce between the two countries approaches its 12 August expiration date, with some hints of a possible extension.
China, the world's largest soybean importer, sources more than 60% of the global shipment, mainly from Brazil and the U.S. Last year, China imported about 105 million metric tons of soybeans, with roughly 25% from the U.S.
Quadrupling imports would require China to heavily favour U.S. soybeans over Brazil’s.
Experts doubt this will happen. Johnny Xiang of AgRadar Consulting called it 'highly unlikely' for China to quadruple U.S. soybean purchases.
China has steadily decreased reliance on U.S. soybeans, shifting towards South American suppliers.
Under the Phase One trade deal, China committed to buying more U.S. agricultural products, but fell short of these targets.
Recently, Chinese buyers have not purchased fourth-quarter U.S. soybeans, fuelling concerns as the U.S. export season nears. Instead, they have purchased soymeal from Argentina to secure cheaper supplies amid potential disruptions.
The U.S. soybean industry is seeking new buyers, but none match China's scale last year, China imported 22.13 million tons from the U.S. and 74.65 million tons from Brazil.
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