Global oil demand will continue rising until around 2030, even as China’s consumption peaks in 2027, driven by low U.S. gasoline prices and slower EV adoption, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday.
The IEA, which advises industrialised countries on energy policy, maintained its forecast that global oil demand will peak this decade - a view in sharp contrast with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which sees no imminent peak.
According to the Paris-based agency’s annual report, oil demand will climb to 105.6 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2029 and decline slightly by 2030. Meanwhile, global production capacity is expected to rise by more than 5 million bpd to 114.7 million bpd by 2030.
Tensions in the Middle East, including the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, have underscored risks to supply security and recently pushed prices above $74 a barrel. However, the IEA said fundamentals point to well-supplied markets through the end of the decade, provided there are no major disruptions.
“Based on the fundamentals, oil markets look set to be well-supplied in the years ahead,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said. “But recent events sharply highlight the significant geopolitical risks to oil supply security.”
China’s economic headwinds and rapid transition to electric vehicles (EVs) are set to push its oil consumption to peak in 2027, with growth slowing thereafter. The IEA noted that by 2030, China’s oil use will be only marginally higher than in 2024, a significant revision from earlier projections that had expected an increase of around 1 million bpd.
In contrast, U.S. demand is set to be more resilient, with low gasoline prices and a slower-than-expected shift to EVs lifting the IEA’s 2030 U.S. oil demand forecast by 1.1 million bpd compared with last year’s outlook.
Since returning to office, President Donald Trump has called on OPEC to lower oil prices and rolled back pro-EV policies, including moves to block California’s stricter EV sales mandates.
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