Indonesia’s Mount Dukono erupts, alert rises for another volcano
Indonesia's Mount Dukono erupted again, sending a thick ash plume 1,100 meters into the sky, as volcanic activity intensifies across the region....
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has slightly increased its forecast for Brent crude oil prices in 2025, despite expectations of growing global stockpiles.
According to the agency’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) release , the average price for Brent crude this year is projected at $65.97 per barrel, up modestly from the previous estimate of $65.85. Similarly, the forecast for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude has been revised upward to $62.33 per barrel from $61.81.
The report highlights that May marked the fourth consecutive month of declining oil prices, driven by a slowdown in global demand growth and an accumulation of inventories, primarily due to increased production by OPEC+ members.
EIA analysts expect global oil supply to outpace consumption throughout the year, resulting in stock builds and downward pressure on prices. Inventories, which have already risen in the first five months, are forecasted to increase by an average of 800,000 barrels per day (bpd) over 2025, reflecting reduced demand in OECD countries and expanded output from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers.
Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the agency anticipates a moderation in supply growth, particularly as U.S. production—the world’s largest oil producer—levels off, while global demand picks up. This dynamic is expected to drive a drawdown in inventories averaging 600,000 bpd in 2026, signaling a move toward market balance.
The EIA projects the average Brent price will ease to $59.24 per barrel next year, with WTI prices falling to $55.58 per barrel.
However, the outlook remains clouded by uncertainties. Risks include wildfires in Canada, ongoing geopolitical tensions such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, potential disruptions to Libyan exports, and the coordinated production policies of the OPEC+ group. Additionally, U.S. trade sanctions targeting Iran, Russia, and Venezuela continue to pose potential supply risks.
U.S. Production Outlook Upgraded
The report also raised U.S. crude oil production forecasts, projecting daily output of approximately 13.42 million barrels in 2025, up from the previous forecast of 13.21 million barrels. For 2026, U.S. production is expected to average 13.37 million barrels per day.
On the global front, oil supply is projected at 104.35 million bpd for 2025, with consumption slightly lower at 103.53 million bpd. In 2026, supply is expected to rise to 105.14 million bpd, outpacing demand projected at 104.58 million bpd.
A magnitude 5.5 earthquake struck off Japan’s Tokara Islands on Wednesday, with no tsunami warning issued but residents advised to remain vigilant.
The United States has rescinded licensing restrictions on ethane exports to China, allowing shipments to resume after a temporary halt and signalling progress in efforts to ease recent trade tensions.
The European Commission is set to propose allowing carbon credits from other countries to count towards the EU’s 2040 climate target, according to a leaked internal document.
Italy plans to grant approximately 500,000 work visas to non-EU nationals between 2026 and 2028, as announced in a cabinet statement. The initiative aims to address labor shortages by expanding legal immigration pathways
China has ramped up efforts to protect communities impacted by flood control measures, introducing stronger compensation policies and direct aid from the central government.
Unexpected weakness in Germany's manufacturing orders in May signals ongoing uncertainty in industrial demand, despite a yearly rise and sector-specific gains.
Oil futures fell on Friday after Iran reaffirmed its commitment to nuclear non-proliferation and amid expectations that major producers are set to agree to raise their output this weekend.
Russia actively shifted its trade focus away from Europe and the United States, redirecting it toward markets in friendly countries—primarily China, India, Central Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. The share of these countries in Russia's foreign trade has increased from 46% to 82%.
Fast fashion retailer Shein has been fined €40 million ($47.17 million) by France’s antitrust watchdog for allegedly having misleading discounts and unclear environmental claims, despite the company’s claim that the issues were fixed a year ago.
A multimodal cargo airport in Azerbaijan’s Alat Free Economic Zone (FEZ) is scheduled for commissioning in Q1 2027, the deputy head of the FEZ governing body Ismail Manafov announced.
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