Since the end of 2024, the price of cocoa has fallen below $7,000 per tonne, as expectations of increased supply and weakening demand triggered a sharp market decline.
The highly volatile price of cocoa declined more than 40% in global markets as drought concerns eased in West Africa and harvest increases.
In West Africa, forecasts have improved due to higher rainfall, while the blossoming of cocoa trees continues to put pressure on prices.
High prices and U.S. tariffs could reduce chocolate demand, adding further strain to the market.
Experts predict that production will rise in the coming season, and although there may be short-term price gains, the overall trend is expected to remain downward.
Last year, cocoa prices reached a record $12,931 per tonne amid global supply concerns. Weak output in the Ivory Coast and Ghana, rejection of poor-quality beans, prolonged droughts, heavy rains, and plant diseases such as the CSSVD virus all contributed to the price surge.
Zafer Ergezen, a futures and commodities market expert, noted that West Africa accounts for 70% of global cocoa production, and reduced output last year and in the first half of this year significantly pushed up prices. He added that production is expected to rise this year, which will increase supply.
Rabobank analyst Oran van Dort said that a significant surplus is anticipated for the 2025/2026 season due to production recovery and weaker demand. Ecuador, Brazil, Peru, Nigeria, and Cameroon have already shown growth, while production in the Ivory Coast and Ghana is expected to recover.
Dort added that although the drop in demand has been slower than expected, it will continue next year, and cocoa prices are likely to trend gradually downward in the short and medium term. However, limited supply in the Ivory Coast and Ghana is expected to keep prices above $3,000 per tonne.
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