Russia is set to maintain its dominance in the global wheat market, remaining the world’s top exporter for the second consecutive year, as global wheat exports face a sharp decline, according to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization.
Despite a downturn in global wheat exports this season, the FAO predicts Russia will continue to dominate the international market, supplying more than a fifth of global wheat shipments. Wheat exports from Russia are forecasted to reach 42.6 million tons in the 2024–2025 period, slightly above the three-year average of 42 million tons. This figure is expected to climb further to 46.5 million tons in 2025–2026, accounting for 22 per cent and 23 per cent of global exports, respectively.
Global wheat exports overall are projected to decline by 8 per cent to a four-year low of 193.3 million tons in 2024–2025, before recovering modestly by 3.8 per cent to 200.6 million tons the following year.
The European Union, previously the second-largest wheat exporter, will see its shipments fall sharply to 24 million tons this season, down from an average of 32.7 million tons over the past three years. A partial rebound to 30.7 million tons is expected in 2025–2026.
Canada will rank third among global exporters, with wheat exports forecast to rise by 19 per cent compared to previous averages, reaching 26 million tons this year. However, exports are projected to dip slightly to 25.5 million tons next season.
FAO analysts note that shifting weather patterns, logistical constraints, and policy interventions are all contributing factors to the evolving dynamics of global wheat trade.
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