Europe can sustain Ukraine's war effort without U.S., German general says

Europe is prepared to sustain Ukraine’s military defence against Russia even without U.S. support, says Germany’s top official overseeing arms deliveries to Kyiv, as uncertainty grows over Washington’s future role.

Europe is capable of maintaining Ukraine’s resistance against Russia, even if the United States were to completely withdraw its military support, according to the German general overseeing Berlin’s arms deliveries to Kyiv.

Major General Christian Freuding, head of the German Defence Ministry’s Ukraine task force, told Reuters that NATO’s European members and Canada have already surpassed the $20 billion in military aid the U.S. provided to Ukraine last year. According to him, they now account for around 60% of the total military support from Western allies.

“The war in Ukraine is taking place on our continent. It’s also a direct attack on the European security order,” Freuding said. “If the political will exists, then the resources will follow — and Europe can largely offset any shortfall from the U.S.”

While Ukraine continues to receive weapons under previous authorisations by former U.S. President Joe Biden, uncertainty surrounds whether his successor, Donald Trump, will approve additional aid or permit third countries to procure U.S. arms for Ukraine.

Asked how long Biden-approved supplies will last, Freuding said it would depend on logistical timelines and the pace at which Ukraine consumes weapons and ammunition, with summer 2025 being a realistic estimate.

“The future of U.S. support remains unclear. What we do know is that the U.S. has a strong interest in expanding its defence industry,” Freuding added. “I cautiously assume that at the very least, it will remain possible to purchase U.S. defence products for Ukraine.”

Russia’s Military Buildup

On Russia’s broader ambitions, Freuding warned that Moscow is actively rebuilding and expanding its military, aiming to double the size of its land forces to 1.5 million troops by 2026.

“They’re recruiting far more personnel than needed for the war in Ukraine,” he said. “They’re also stockpiling surplus ammunition and expanding military infrastructure — especially in the Western Military District, near the border with new NATO member Finland.”

Freuding cautioned that any ceasefire in Ukraine could allow Russia to accelerate its rearmament, potentially setting the stage for a larger-scale attack on NATO sometime after 2029, according to current alliance estimates.

“Of course, a ceasefire would shift the threat landscape,” he said.

Moscow, for its part, denies any plans to attack NATO and claims its so-called "special military operation" in Ukraine is intended to defend Russia from Western aggression.

German and European Contributions

Germany, according to its defence ministry, has pledged €38 billion ($43 billion) in military support to Ukraine, including funding committed for the coming years — making it the second-largest donor after the United States.

Freuding noted that it remains unclear whether the Trump administration has authorised any U.S.-origin weapons deliveries to Ukraine paid for by third-party nations.

He acknowledged that some aspects of U.S. support would be difficult for Europe to replace, including:

Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) data

Air defence systems like the Patriot

Spare parts for U.S.-made weapons

“If it turns out that the U.S. will no longer provide ISR data, we’ll have to explore how to compensate for that,” Freuding said. Ukraine heavily relies on U.S. intelligence, not just for air defence, but also for precision targeting, experts say.

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