President Ilham Aliyev shares key messages in Washington interview
President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev gave an interview to a select group of Azerbaijani journalists in Washington on August 8, includi...
Benchmark prices for seaborne thermal coal have plummeted to their lowest level in four years, with analysts warning of further declines due to a global oversupply largely fueled by surging production in China.
Thermal coal, used primarily in power generation, has now fallen to one-quarter of its 2022 peak, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent energy markets into turmoil and sparked a coal price rally that generated outsized profits for miners and hedge funds alike.
The subsequent boom period in 2022 and 2023 incentivized a wave of new production across major coal-producing countries, particularly China, India, and Indonesia. This rapid expansion has since outstripped demand, especially in China, the world's largest producer and consumer of thermal coal.
China and India Hold Excess Inventory
So far in 2025, China’s domestic coal output has hit record highs, slashing its need for imports and creating a ripple effect in global markets. High inventory levels in both China and India, the second-largest coal user, have also dampened buying activity, reducing pressure on prices to rise.
“There is not too much price support at the moment,” said Firat Ergene, an energy analyst at Kpler. “Even if prices were lower, no one is going to buy more coal,” he added, pointing to the stockpiles already accumulated.
Coal market weakness is also seasonal. The current “shoulder season” — the spring and autumn months — typically sees a lull in demand, particularly from Asian power producers who ramp up usage during the hot summer months for air conditioning.
Prices May Recover in Second Half of 2025
Despite the bearish outlook in the short term, analysts expect a modest recovery in coal prices in the second half of the year, driven by increased summer demand in the northern hemisphere.
“We are right at the start of the restock before the summer peak,” said Tom Price, an analyst at Panmure Liberum. “I’m not expecting shock and awe moves, but demand will pick up.”
Alex Thackrah, analyst at Argus, echoed the sentiment, noting that supply-side responses are already under way. Miners in Colombia, such as Glencore and Drummond, have begun to curtail output in response to low prices — a sign that some producers are now feeling the pinch.
Exporters Under Pressure
The global seaborne coal market, which represents just 10% of total thermal coal consumption, has been particularly volatile. Major exporters like Indonesia, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia are bearing the brunt of the price collapse, especially as European nations continue their coal phase-outs in line with green energy policies.
Still, global demand for coal remains historically high, setting a new record last year, as some emerging economies turn to the fuel for baseload power amid energy security concerns.
While prices are not expected to return to 2022 highs, analysts say a seasonal rebound is likely, offering a temporary reprieve for producers. Until then, markets remain in a state of oversupply, with weak demand and heavy inventories continuing to cap prices.
The world’s biggest dance music festival faces an unexpected setback as a fire destroys its main stage, prompting a last-minute response from organisers determined to keep the party alive in Boom, Belgium.
According to the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), a magnitude 5.7 earthquake struck the Oaxaca region of Mexico on Saturday.
China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations will send an upgraded ‘version 3.0’ free-trade agreement to their heads of government for approval in October, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Saturday after regional talks in Kuala Lumpur.
A resumption of Iraq’s Kurdish oil exports is not expected in the near term, sources familiar with the matter said on Friday, despite an announcement by Iraq’s federal government a day earlier stating that shipments would resume immediately.
Chinese automaker Chery has denied an industry-ministry audit that disqualified more than $53 million in state incentives for thousands of its electric and hybrid vehicles, insisting it followed official guidance and committed no fraud.
U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Friday that he will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on 15 August to negotiate an end to the conflict in Ukraine. The summit, confirmed by the Kremlin, is expected to focus on a long-term peaceful resolution.
According to Bloomberg News, the United States and Russia are working toward an agreement aimed at halting the war in Ukraine by formalizing Russia’s occupation of territories seized during its invasion.
A fire broke out at Cordoba’s historic mosque-cathedral on the night of 8 August but was swiftly extinguished, preventing damage to one of Spain’s most treasured architectural landmarks.
The Canadian government announced Friday it will join key allies in reducing the price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil in response to Moscow’s ongoing war in Ukraine.
Washington, D.C., will see its federal security funding reduced by $20 million this year under a Trump administration plan, despite the president’s repeated claims that crime in the capital is spiraling.
You can download the AnewZ application from Play Store and the App Store.
What is your opinion on this topic?
Leave the first comment