Portugal’s centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD), led by Prime Minister Luis Montenegro, has won the country’s third parliamentary election in as many years, but once again failed to secure a majority, setting the stage for further political uncertainty.
With all domestic votes counted, the AD secured 89 seats in the 230-seat parliament—nine more than its previous tally, yet still well short of the 116 needed for a majority.
Addressing supporters in Lisbon, Montenegro framed the result as a renewed mandate despite lacking a majority:
“The Portuguese don’t want any more snap elections, they want a four-year legislature,” he said, while his backers chanted “Let Luis work,” his campaign slogan.
The election, triggered after Montenegro's minority government lost a vote of confidence in March, marked another chapter in Portugal’s turbulent political cycle. The confidence vote was prompted by allegations regarding Montenegro’s ties to his family’s consultancy firm - accusations he has denied.
Chega Surges, Socialists Weaken
The far-right Chega party, led by Andre Ventura, surged to a historic 58 seats, matching the tally of the once-dominant Socialist Party (PS), which fell from 78 seats. The Socialists’ sharp decline led Pedro Nuno Santos to announce his resignation as party leader.
Overseas votes—still to be counted—could elevate Chega into second place, marking the first time in nearly four decades the Socialists might not finish in the top two.
“We didn’t win this election, but we’ve made history,” Ventura declared, as jubilant supporters cheered. Chega has notably made inroads in traditional left-leaning areas, including the southern Beja district.
Coalition Conundrum
Montenegro has ruled out any coalition with Chega, citing stark ideological differences. Without Chega’s support, AD will need to negotiate support on a case-by-case basis or form a rare grand coalition with the Socialists, a move some analysts suggest might be necessary to ensure stability.
“Bipartisanship is over,” said political scientist Adelino Maltez, urging mainstream parties to consider cooperation to avoid further political gridlock.
Implications for Governance
Despite strong economic performance in recent years—marked by solid growth, budget surpluses, and falling debt—Portugal’s political landscape remains fragile. Continued instability could delay major reforms and projects, such as the privatization of TAP Air Portugal and expansion of lithium mining in the north.
Public concern remains high.
“I fear more uncertainty ahead,” said Irene Medeiros, 77, outside a polling station in Espinho. “We’ve seen this before, and we may see it again.”
As Portugal waits for overseas ballots and coalition negotiations to unfold, its political future remains uncertain—even as the electorate sends a clear message: no party can go it alone.
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