Portugal's ruling centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD), led by Prime Minister Luís Montenegro, is on track to win the most votes in Sunday’s snap parliamentary election—but likely without securing a governing majority, according to exit polls.

The early election—the third in just three years—was triggered after Montenegro’s minority government lost a parliamentary confidence vote in March. The motion was driven by opposition allegations concerning the prime minister’s ties to his family’s consultancy firm, though Montenegro has denied any wrongdoing. Most opinion polls suggested voters were largely unmoved by the accusations.

Beyond political scandals, the campaign was shaped by pressing issues like housing and immigration, in a country that has seen a decade of fragile governments. Even the only administration to win an outright majority collapsed midway through its term in 2024.

Exit polls from the country’s major broadcasters—SIC, RTP, and TVI—indicated the Democratic Alliance was projected to win between 29% and 35.1% of the vote. While enough to be the largest party, the result falls short of the majority needed to govern alone—mirroring the outcome of the previous election in March 2024.

Outside a polling station in Espinho, where Montenegro cast his vote, 77-year-old Irene Medeiros said, “The best candidate must win,” but voiced concerns over continued political uncertainty.

Montenegro’s main opponents, the centre-left Socialist Party (PS), secured between 19.4% and 26% of the vote, according to the polls—roughly tied with the far-right Chega party, which garnered between 19.5% and 25.5%, up from the 18% it received last year. Montenegro has repeatedly ruled out any coalition or deal with Chega, further complicating the path to a stable government.

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