India is replacing Russia in Armenia’s arms market

Armenia’s $1.5 bn shift to Indian and French arms has slashed Russia’s share of its weapons imports from 94 % to 10 %, underscoring supply gaps and eroding trust.

Armenia signed defence contracts worth more than US$1.5 billion with India between 2022 and 2023, according to a new report by the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) that cites parliamentary disclosures in Yerevan.

During that period Armenia ordered Indian‑made Pinaka 214 mm multiple‑launch rocket systems, ATAGS 155 mm artillery, ZADS anti‑drone suites, Akash‑1S surface‑to‑air missiles, Konkurs anti‑tank systems (licenced from Russia), mortars and assorted munitions. The next delivery, India’s new‑generation Akash‑NG medium‑range air‑defence system, is expected shortly.

France has become Armenia’s other key supplier: from 2023 to 2024 Yerevan inked roughly US$250 million in deals for three GroundMaster‑200 radars, Mistral‑3 MANPADS and CAESAR self‑propelled howitzers.

Russia, by contrast, has not completed a US$400 million weapons contract signed in 2021. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) once put Russia’s share of Armenian arms imports at 94 percent (2011‑‑2020); by early 2024, Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan said that figure had fallen to just 10 percent. RIAC attributes the decline chiefly to supply constraints caused by the war in Ukraine.

Moscow’s standing in Armenian public opinion has also eroded. An International Republican Institute poll (December 2023) showed Russia ranking third—behind Azerbaijan and Turkey—among states perceived as “political threats,” a shift analysts trace to Armenia’s defeat in the 2020 Nagorno‑Karabakh war and subsequent border clashes, during which Yerevan felt Russia’s response was muted. The Armenian government has since pursued a policy of diversifying its foreign ties, leaning toward the West: it signed a strategic partnership charter with Washington in January 2025 and, in February, parliament opened the process for EU accession.

Even so, Russia remains Armenia’s top trade partner. In 2024 bilateral trade hit US$12.4 billion (41 percent of Armenia’s total turnover), up from US$7.9 billion in 2023, driven largely by re‑exports of Western goods to Russia and Russian goods outward via Armenia. Russian FDI stock has doubled since 2022 to US$4 billion.

Analyst Artur Ataev says Yerevan’s long‑planned defence pivot toward India is meant to cut political dependence on Moscow; Paris plays a complementary role. Yet Armenia has no desire to sever military ties with Russia outright—those links, he notes, still matter more to Yerevan than to Moscow.

Stanislav Pritchin of IMEMO RAS adds that Indian and French systems cannot fully replace Armenia’s predominantly Russian‑made arsenal, which needs Russian maintenance and spares, while the Russian base in Gyumri keeps defence standards aligned with the CSTO. He believes Russia’s market share will rebound over time.

For now, Armenia profits as a trans‑shipment hub for Russian trade, but Pritchin warns this advantage could fade if sanctions lift or loopholes close, returning commerce to pre‑2020 levels.

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