Germany warned on Monday that it will keep weapons flowing to Ukraine unless Moscow accepts a proposed 30‑day cease‑fire, with Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul telling counterparts in London that new arms packages are ready if Russia refuses to halt hostilities.
Germany signaled on Monday that it will keep supplying weapons to Ukraine unless a new 30‑day cease‑fire under negotiation with Russia takes hold, but it also left the door open to scaling back deliveries if the truce is observed. Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul, speaking on arrival at a “Weimar +” meeting of European foreign ministers in London, said Berlin “expects Russia to agree to a cease‑fire and then be prepared to negotiate,” adding that fresh arms packages are ready if Moscow refuses.
A fragile truce proposal
The remarks come as diplomats from the United States, France and several EU states try to broker an unconditional 30‑day pause in hostilities to enable direct talks between Presidents Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin in Istanbul later this week. Kyiv reports continued drone strikes despite preliminary “days of silence,” arguing that additional Western aid remains a necessary bargaining lever.
Berlin’s existing support and new opacity
Since February 2022 Germany has become Ukraine’s second‑largest bilateral arms donor after the United States, delivering Leopard 2A6 battle tanks, MARS II rocket launchers and IRIS‑T and Patriot air‑defense systems. On 10 May, Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the government will no longer publish detailed delivery lists to create “strategic ambiguity,” while insisting the overall volume of support will “grow, not shrink.”
Domestic debate: long‑range missiles and industry shift
Kyiv continues to lobby Berlin for Taurus KEPD‑350 cruise missiles, whose 500‑kilometre range would mirror Britain’s Storm Shadow capability. The issue divides the governing CDU–FDP coalition, even as Germany’s defence industry re‑tools shuttered or under‑used automotive plants to meet higher demand for artillery shells and heavy armour. Rheinmetall, for example, plans to repurpose facilities in Berlin and Neuss for defense production alongside residual car‑parts work.
Divergent views inside the European Union
EU foreign‑policy chief Kaja Kallas has proposed a €40 billion military‑aid package for 2025, but Italy and Spain said in March they were “not ready” to endorse the plan, exposing north‑south differences over Ukraine policy. With U.S. backing now tied to Washington’s mediation effort, Berlin’s position is viewed by diplomats as pivotal to maintaining a united European line.
Kyiv welcomes the signal
President Zelenskyy’s office described Wadephul’s statement as a “pillar of deterrence,” noting that Germany’s support has been central to shoring up Ukraine’s air defenses ahead of the spring harvest and critical infrastructure repair season.
Moscow’s response and earlier warnings
The Kremlin has repeatedly labelled Western arms deliveries a “red line.” President Putin warned in 2022 that Russia would strike “new targets” if longer‑range missiles reached Ukrainian hands, a stance Russian officials have reiterated as Berlin weighs the Taurus system.
NATO trajectory
In a weekend interview the German foreign minister said Ukraine’s path to NATO membership is “irreversible,” a view Berlin links to sustaining military assistance until a legally binding peace is achieved—an approach Ukrainian and several Eastern European officials endorse.
What to watch
Short term: Should Moscow reject the 30‑day cease‑fire, Defense Ministry officials say Berlin is likely to announce additional air‑defense interceptors and mobile bridging units before the NATO defense‑ministers’ meeting in June.
Medium term: The new secrecy policy may complicate public oversight but could also make Russian planning harder, supporters argue.
Long term: If German industry succeeds in scaling up munitions output, Berlin’s “conditional escalation” model—linking aid to cease‑fire compliance—could become a template for other European capitals balancing diplomacy with deterrence.
For now, Germany’s stance adds pressure on Moscow while reassuring Kyiv that support will not evaporate overnight. Whether that leverage nudges the parties toward negotiations or prompts further escalation will be the next test of Europe’s evolving security strategy.
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