Europe must step up in space or risk losing ground to Musk

NATO's top transformation commander has issued a stark warning: Europe risks being left behind in the increasingly militarized space race, outpaced by private players like Elon Musk and strategic rivals such as China and Russia.

Admiral Pierre Vandier, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Transformation, reported that Europe urgently needs to revamp its approach to space — both technologically and economically — or risk forfeiting its sovereignty in this critical domain.

“There can be no European sovereignty without efforts in space. Today, a major awakening is necessary, even urgent, for Europeans to get started,” Vandier said.

He added that even the U.S. is urging Europe to "come of age" and assume more responsibility in space-related defense and technology.

Geopolitical Stakes

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has underscored the strategic importance of space assets — from communications to intelligence gathering — while also exposing Europe’s dependency on U.S. commercial services, particularly Elon Musk’s SpaceX. The EU’s IRIS² satellite constellation isn’t expected to be operational before 2030, leaving a significant gap in Europe’s autonomy.

“Today, we’re seeing a number of players introducing space weapons,” Vandier warned, referencing orbital bombs and anti-satellite weaponry capable of jamming or destroying space infrastructure.

U.S. Space Command recently labeled space a “highly contested strategic environment,” and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has expressed concerns over Russia’s potential deployment of nuclear weapons in orbit.

A Shifting Space Economy

Vandier emphasized that Europe’s reliance on costly geostationary satellites is outdated. New threats and technologies require more agile and resilient low-Earth orbit (LEO) constellations.

LEO satellites are cheaper — costing between $100,000 and $150,000 each — and can be deployed quickly and frequently, compared to traditional satellites priced at $300–400 million apiece.

“The economic model chosen by the Europeans is based on geostationary satellites. Today, the question is: Aren’t Europeans at a point where they need to change their model?” Vandier asked. “If they don’t, I think they’re going to get kicked out.”

While Europe has strengths in traditional space infrastructure through companies like ArianeGroup, it is largely absent from the fast-growing “New Space” market dominated by SpaceX.

Stumbles and Proposals

European startups have struggled to gain traction. The March 30 explosion of Isar Aerospace’s Spectrum rocket shortly after liftoff from Norway highlighted the technological and funding hurdles. Norwegian defense firm Kongsberg launched its first satellite — but had to use a SpaceX rocket to do so.

To boost Europe’s competitiveness, Vandier proposes a European Defense Act to stimulate tech entrepreneurship through financial and regulatory incentives.

He also supports the creation of a European space marketplace, modeled on the U.S. Joint Commercial Operations system, which streamlines military access to commercial space services.

“The Americans have asked us to work on making a space marketplace... where you can buy services through speed dating,” he noted.

NATO’s Role Expands

NATO formally recognized space as an operational domain in 2019. Vandier said the alliance is now developing tools for space domain awareness and attribution — the ability to monitor space activities, understand threats, and coordinate collective responses.

“We’ll be able to tell the 32 allies: ‘This is what’s going on, this is what happened,’” Vandier said. “That’s what gives us political and military power.”

The alliance’s main space contributors include the U.S., France, the U.K., Italy, Norway, Canada, and Germany.

However, space capabilities remain underdeveloped in NATO’s broader defense planning, and Vandier believes future planning rounds will need to include options like co-owning military satellite constellations.

What to Expect Next

Despite these warnings, Vandier doesn’t expect space to feature prominently at NATO’s June summit in The Hague.

“The big topic will be the 5 percent,” he said, referencing U.S. President Donald Trump’s call for allies to spend 5% of their GDP on defense. “It would be nice to have a statement on space, but I don’t think we’re there yet.”

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