Marvel's 'Thunderbolts' kicks off summer box office

Marvel Studios' latest ensemble superhero film 'Thunderbolts*' has officially launched the 2025 summer movie season, generating an estimated $31.5 million on its opening day and heading toward a domestic opening weekend of approximately $73-77 million.

While this represents a solid start for the antihero team-up, it reflects the evolving landscape of Marvel's box office dominance in the post-pandemic era.

Box Office Performance and Projections

'Thunderbolts*' opened across 4,330 theaters in North America on May 2, 2025, amassing $31.5 million from Friday and preview screenings. Industry analysts project the film will finish its domestic opening weekend with between $73-77 million, placing it firmly at the top of the weekend box office charts. Globally, the film is tracking toward a $165-175 million opening weekend, with $47.2 million already earned overseas through Friday.

The film's performance, while respectable, falls below Disney's earlier Marvel release 'Captain America: Brave New World,' which opened with $88.8 million in February. The $75 million debut places 'Thunderbolts*' in the middle tier of MCU opening weekends, comparable to films like 'Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings' ($75.3 million) and 'Eternals' ($71.2 million).

"Although expectations are typically higher for Marvel releases during the summer's opening weekend, the overall box office, which is anticipated to reach around $145 million this weekend for all films combined, is nothing to criticize," notes industry publication Deadline. This performance reflects what many see as "the current state of original releases from Marvel in a post-COVID landscape."

International Reception

Internationally, 'Thunderbolts*' is performing well across most markets, with particularly strong showings in Latin America and the UK. Through Friday, the top five international markets were China ($7.1 million), Mexico ($4.2 million), the UK ($3.1 million), Brazil ($2.2 million), and France ($2.1 million). The film is expected to rank number one across most territories, with the notable exceptions of Korea and China, where audience response has been more muted.

Critical and Audience Response

One promising aspect of 'Thunderbolts*' launch is its positive reception from both critics and audiences. The film has garnered an A- CinemaScore from opening night audiences, significantly better than the B- received by 'Captain America: Brave New World' earlier this year. On Rotten Tomatoes, 'Thunderbolts*' holds an impressive 88-89% approval rating from critics and an even stronger 94-95% from verified ticket buyers.

"The film has garnered a solid A- Cinemascore from audiences, indicating positive word-of-mouth and potential for repeat viewings," reports Forbes. This positive reception suggests 'Thunderbolts*' may demonstrate stronger staying power than recent Marvel entries that faced more mixed reviews.

Demographically, the audience skewed male and older, with men over 25 comprising 45% of viewers, women over 25 at 25%, men under 25 at 20%, and women under 25 at 10%. The diversity breakdown showed 42% white, 17% Black, and 10% Asian audiences. Notably, 75% of surveyed viewers expressed interest in a sequel, with 40% citing the cast as a key reason for their attendance and 53% pointing to Marvel affiliation as their primary motivation.

Financial Context and Industry Impact

With a reported production budget of $180 million and marketing costs of approximately $100 million, 'Thunderbolts*' faces the challenge of achieving profitability in an increasingly competitive theatrical landscape. Industry analysts suggest the film would need to reach approximately $450-500 million globally to break even.

"If the opening climbs to $170 million, adjusting the multiplier to 3.15x could see the film gross approximately $535 million," Forbes projects, suggesting the film has a reasonable path to profitability if it maintains momentum. However, as Screen Rant notes, "Even if the Thunderbolts* release debuts at the lower end of its projections, it will have become the 11th highest-grossing movie of the year so far worldwide over the course of just three days."

Competition at the Box Office

'Thunderbolts*' faces notable competition from Ryan Coogler's 'Sinners,' which continues to demonstrate exceptional staying power in its third weekend. The R-rated vampire thriller starring Michael B. Jordan is projected to earn $33-35 million in its third frame, representing a remarkably small 25-28% decline from its previous weekend.

"If Sinners maintains its current trajectory, it may soon surpass Captain America: Brave New World to become the second-highest-grossing film in the domestic market," reports Mashable. This strong competition may be impacting 'Thunderbolts*' opening numbers, though both films appear to be finding their audience.

The Marvel Cinematic Universe's Evolving Status

'Thunderbolts*' opening performance continues to reflect broader questions about Marvel's current box office dominance. While still capable of commanding the top spot at the box office, recent Marvel films have shown a trend of diminishing returns compared to the franchise's peak during the "Infinity Saga."

"The opening falls well below 'Captain America: Brave New World', which earned $100 million during its first domestic weekend," notes That Park Place, though this figure appears to be somewhat inflated compared to other sources. "But it does demonstrate Marvel Studios' diminished event status at the box office," reports Variety.

Some analysts point to potential superhero fatigue, with Joblo asking, "Is it superhero fatigue? Maybe, as the Marvel grosses have been steadily declining since 'Ant-Man & The Wasp: Quantumania' (excepting outliers like 'Guardians of the Galaxy 3' and 'Deadpool & Wolverine')". However, the positive audience reception suggests quality may be a more significant factor than genre fatigue.

Film Content and Creative Direction

Directed by Jake Schreier with a screenplay by Eric Pearson and Joanna Cal, 'Thunderbolts*' assembles a team of antiheroes and reformed villains from across the Marvel Cinematic Universe. The star-studded ensemble includes Florence Pugh as Yelena Belova, Sebastian Stan as Bucky Barnes, David Harbour as Red Guardian, Wyatt Russell as U.S. Agent, Hannah John-Kamen as Ghost, Olga Kurylenko as Taskmaster, and Julia Louis-Dreyfus as Valentina Allegra de Fontaine.

The film follows "a ragtag team-up of Marvel's least superpowered personalities" who "must embark on a dangerous mission that will force them to confront the darkest corners of their pasts". This focus on lesser-known characters represents a shift from Marvel's approach of building films around its most recognizable heroes.

Conclusion

As 'Thunderbolts*' officially launches the summer movie season, its performance reflects both the continuing appeal of Marvel's cinematic universe and the challenges the studio faces in maintaining its previous level of box office dominance. With strong critical and audience reception potentially driving positive word-of-mouth, the film has an opportunity to demonstrate stronger legs than some recent Marvel entries.

The summer box office season now begins with cautious optimism, as 'Thunderbolts*' solid if unspectacular opening suggests audiences remain interested in theatrical experiences, particularly for event films with positive reception. As Forbes notes, "Thunderbolts' strong performance signifies Marvel's resurgence as a summer blockbuster force, aligning with a broader trend of successful box office releases that are benefiting from increased theater attendance."