Rebels' battlefield advantage in east Congo complicates push for talks

Rwanda-backed M23 rebels withdrew from peace talks with Congo after EU sanctions on their leaders. With major battlefield wins, they demand more concessions. A surprise ceasefire call from Congo and Rwanda’s presidents may not impact the conflict, as mistrust stalls multiple peace efforts.

For years, Rwanda-backed M23 rebels in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo demanded direct negotiations with Congolese authorities. Battlefield gains mean they can now afford to snub them to try to wring out more concessions.

When President Felix Tshisekedi's government, reeling from M23's capture of eastern Congo's two biggest cities, finally agreed over the weekend to talks with M23 on Tuesday in Angola, the rebels pulled out.

M23's rebel coalition, the Congo River Alliance (AFC), said on Monday that European Union sanctions imposed against their leaders and Rwandan officials accused of supporting them had made talks "impracticable".

"M23/AFC has taken advantage of the European sanctions to disengage, but this withdrawal also shows a refusal to enter negotiations without a guarantee of obtaining substantial concessions," said Tresor Kibangula, a political analyst at Congo's Ebuteli research institute.

Tshisekedi and his Rwandan counterpart Paul Kagame both called for a ceasefire in a surprise meeting on Tuesday, their first since the rebels stepped up their offensive in January.

But it was unclear what, if any, impact their hour-long talks on Tuesday, mediated by Qatar and separate from the cancelled M23 talks, would have on the ground, where M23 has been emboldened by a series of decisive victories.

M23 has previously called for an end to what it says is the persecution of ethnic Tutsis in Congo. Kinshasa has said the rebels are terrorists and must lay down their arms.

"Why would M23 stop if they have the upper hand militarily?" said Jason Stearns, a political scientist at Simon Fraser University, specialising in Africa's Great Lakes region.

"When you combine that with the sanctions imposed on Rwanda that were more aggressive than expected, I think they felt it was not the right time for them."

Rwanda has denied supporting M23 and said its military has been acting in self defence against Congo's army and militias hostile to Kigali.

MULTIPLE PEACE PROCESSES

Progress on bringing the rival camps to the negotiating table has also been complicated by the existence of several different peace processes, including the latest talks in Qatar. All sides are deeply mistrustful of the competing initiatives.

Angola has been trying to achieve a peace agreement since 2022 between Rwanda and Congo in African Union-backed talks. Those broke down in December over Congolese opposition to direct negotiations with M23.

East and Southern African countries decided in February to merge various peace initiatives, including those led by Angola.

But Angola expressed concerns at the time about seeing its mediation efforts bogged down amid competing peace initiatives, which it thought M23 could take advantage of to seize more territory, said two government ministers in the region, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Then last week, Angolan President Joao Lourenco unexpectedly announced the direct talks between Congo and M23.

Having initially agreed to participate, three rebel sources said preparations for the talks fuelled their doubts about Lourenco's ability to act as an honest broker.

Two of them said a plane sent by Angola on Monday was unable to land in Uganda to pick up the M23 negotiators because Angolan authorities had not informed their Ugandan counterparts of its arrival, making them suspect Luanda was trying to sabotage the process.

Angola's government did not respond to a request for comment.

On Monday, a joint meeting of the East African Community and Southern African Development Community agreed to a roadmap for resolving the conflict that includes efforts to secure a ceasefire within 30 days.

However, an African diplomat, who asked not to be named, said the Congolese government was as distrustful toward that initiative as M23 was toward the Angolan efforts.

"The mistrust is reciprocal," the diplomat said. "It's up to us Africans to harmonise our views and not multiply initiatives."

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