China on Tuesday swiftly retaliated against fresh U.S. tariffs, announcing 10%-15% hikes to import levies covering a range of American agricultural and food products, and placing twenty-five U.S. firms under export and investment restrictions.
COMMENTS:
WANG ZHUO, PARTNER AT HEDGE FUND ZHUOZHU INVEST, SHANGHAI
Raising tariff on China "will likely hurt the U.S. itself as it needs cheap Chinese products to bring down inflation. Higher tariffs on U.S. agriculture products will also negatively impact China", but countermeasures are politically necessary. "So, it would be wise to make some symbolic move without triggering an escalation in tensions."
DENNIS VOZNESENSKI, ANALYST, COMMONWEALTH BANK, SYDNEY
"Chinese tariffs on U.S. wheat and corn imports should be supportive for demand for Australian wheat and barley exports. However, China's recent slowdown in imports of feed grains from all origins should temper the excitement."
WAN CHENGZHI, ANALYST, CAPITAL JINGDU FUTURES, DALIAN CITY
"Considering that China's peak import period for U.S. soybeans has already passed, the impact of these countermeasures on the total volume of U.S. soybean imports is limited. Any price increases in the future are likely to be more of an emotional market response."
OLE HOUE, DIRECTOR OF ADVISORY SERVICES, IKON COMMODITIES, SYDNEY
"It is broadly negative for U.S. agricultural markets. It is going to have a bearish influence on prices. There are enough corn and soybean supplies in the world for China to make the switch, it is more of an issue for the U.S., 30% of U.S. soybeans still go to China."
EVEN PAY, AGRICULTURE ANALYST, TRIVIUM CHINA
"It's notable that Beijing's response is restrained. Trump has now imposed a total of 20% tariffs on all Chinese products. China's tariffs impact a limited number of U.S. products, and remain below the 20% level. This is by design. China's government is signalling that they do not want to escalate, they want to deescalate.
"It's fair to say we're in the early days of Trade War 2.0. There's still time and space to avoid a protracted, entrenched trade war if Trump and Xi can strike a deal."
ROSA WANG, ANALYST, SHANGHAI-BASED AGRO-CONSULTANCY JCI
"From the supply and demand perspective, the short-term impact on the domestic market won't be significant. The reasons are: 1. It is currently the South American soybean season, while the U.S. soybean is in the off-season; 2. The amount of U.S. soybeans purchased by China has decreased, and the proportion of U.S. soybeans in China's soybean imports has dropped to 17%.
"However, the large number of products involved this time will add further difficulties to China's aquatic product exports to the U.S., especially tilapia exports. With the additional 10% tariff, the tariff on tilapia exports to the U.S. will reach 45%, making it basically impossible to export to the U.S."
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