With governments focused on conflicts in the Gulf and Ukraine, China is pressing ahead with a more assertive military and strategic posture across the Pacific, particularly around its immediate neighbourhood.
The latest concerns include suspected Chinese unmanned underwater vehicles found in waters near Indonesia and the Philippines. Maritime analysts said one object discovered near Bali was almost certainly an unmanned recording platform potentially used to monitor shipping.
China has also increased military activity in the South China Sea, including repeated confrontations with Philippine vessels and drills near the disputed Scarborough Shoal., which China calls Huangyan Island.
In July, China test-fired a submarine-launched ballistic missile with a dummy warhead into the South Pacific, while reports also linked Beijing to a sharp rise in cyberattacks against Taiwan.
Beijing's growing assertiveness is forcing countries across the region to balance economic ties with China against security concerns.
Japan has warned that a Chinese move against Taiwan could pose an “existential” threat, while Chinese patrols near disputed Japanese islands have increased. Australia and the Philippines are strengthening defence cooperation with Washington while maintaining economic ties with Beijing.
Indonesia has similarly sought to maintain relations with both powers, including taking part in joint naval manoeuvres with China.
Despite the rivalry, some diplomats believe Washington and Beijing may be entering a period of strategic stability as both sides seek to reduce their dependence on one another.
China's dominance in critical minerals and technology remains an important source of leverage, while Western defence and technology companies continue to face difficulties sourcing non-Chinese components.
The broader challenge for countries across the Indo-Pacific is how to manage growing Chinese influence while maintaining security ties with the United States.
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