What Putin's visit to India means for both countries' oil and defence ties

Russia is aiming to boost oil, missile systems, and fighter jets, hoping to restore and strengthen energy and defence ties with India, which were affected by U.S. pressure.

This comes as Russian President Vladimir Putin embarks on a two-day visit to India starting Thursday.

For decades, Russia has supplied arms to India, with New Delhi emerging as its top buyer of seaborne oil despite Western sanctions after Moscow launched its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

However, India's crude imports from Russia are set to fall to a three-year low this month, as tightening sanctions on Russia coincide with a growing shift towards U.S. oil and gas purchases.

During his first visit to India in four years, Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi for a summit. He will be accompanied by his defence minister, Andrei Belousov, and a broad delegation from business and industry.

"Putin's visit presents an opportunity for India to reaffirm its special relationship with Russia despite recent changes, while pushing ahead with new arms deals," said Michael Kugelman of the Atlantic Council. He added that new initiatives were likely to be announced, although they would probably focus on areas of longstanding cooperation.

Putin’s visit to India comes at a time of growing tension in global trade and diplomacy, particularly due to the impact of U.S. sanctions.

While India continues to rely on Russia for key military equipment and energy imports, recent developments, such as U.S. tariffs and a shift towards more Western oil sources, are reshaping the dynamics of this strategic relationship.

The Trump factor

Indian officials are cautious about deepening energy and defence ties with Russia amid concerns that any new deals could provoke a reaction from U.S. President Donald Trump, who has made it clear that he disapproves of India’s dealings with Russia.

In August, Trump doubled tariffs to 50% on Indian goods as retaliation for New Delhi’s purchase of Russian crude.

Despite these tensions, India remains keen on balancing its interests with Russia and the U.S., particularly in areas such as defence, trade, and energy. Ahead of Putin's visit, discussions have already taken place between Russian and Indian officials in defence, shipping, agriculture, and more, signaling that both sides are looking to expand cooperation.

In August, India and the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union agreed to start discussions on a free trade deal, aiming to solidify their economic partnership.

Key areas on the agenda: defence, energy, and trade
energy and defence cooperation

Despite reductions in crude imports, defence ties with Russia remain strong. Indian Defence Secretary Rajesh Kumar Singh stated that India will continue its partnership with Russia, as the country relies heavily on Russian-made military equipment, including Sukhoi-30 jets, which form the backbone of India’s air force.

Putin’s visit is expected to focus on expanding India’s military capabilities, including discussions on the purchase of Russia’s advanced Su-57 fighter jets and additional S-400 air defence systems.

Despite growing tensions with the U.S. over these deals, India’s need for advanced defence equipment means the S-400 remains a priority.

Russia's energy partnership with India remains vital, and Russian energy firms are looking to expand trade with India.

Sberbank is actively exploring rupee-based transactions for trade, including offering rupee loans to Russian exporters to facilitate trade in Indian goods.

Beyond defence and energy, India and Russia are also moving forward with a free trade agreement within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union, which was discussed during high-level meetings in August. This trade deal is designed to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs, which were increased to 50% on Indian goods in response to India’s purchase of Russian crude.

Sberbank’s interest in investing in Indian infrastructure also signals an opportunity for closer economic ties, although India has increasingly sought energy diversification through partnerships with the U.S. and the Middle East.

The strategic role of defence ties

Even as India strengthens its relations with the West, defence cooperation with Russia remains a cornerstone of India’s national security strategy.

India operates a variety of Russian military systems, including the T-90 tanks, the S-400 missile defence system, and Sukhoi-30 fighter jets. This military partnership plays a crucial role in countering regional threats, especially from China and Pakistan.

In particular, the S-400 system continues to be of strategic importance for India’s defence posture, despite growing U.S. opposition to India’s acquisition.

The visit is expected to address this ongoing defence cooperation, with India likely pushing for more advanced Russian technology to enhance its capabilities.

Putin’s visit reflects Russia’s efforts to maintain its influence in South Asia despite the challenging geopolitical landscape and mounting Western sanctions. For India, managing its relationships with Russia, the U.S., and other global players remains a complex balancing act.

However, defence cooperation with Russia remains central to India’s national security strategy, while growing trade and energy partnerships offer new avenues for economic resilience amid global pressures.

Tags

Politics Russia Vladimir Putin India Narendra Modi