Moldova votes in a tight parliamentary contest seen as pivotal for its EU ambitions, with President Maia Sandu warning of Russian interference and polls pointing to a razor-thin race between pro-European and pro-Russian blocs.

Moldovans head to the polls on Sunday in a parliamentary election that could shape the government’s drive to join the European Union, as a popular pro-Russian alliance seeks to pull the country away from closer ties with the bloc.

If no party secures a majority in the 101-seat legislature, coalition bargaining is expected, potentially adding to the instability in one of Europe’s poorest nations, already unsettled by the war in neighbouring Ukraine and alleged Russian interference in politics and religion.

For the pro-EU government, retaining control of parliament is critical to advancing the legislative reforms needed for accession. Yet Moldova, a former Soviet republic, has long swung between pro-European and pro-Russian forces. Roughly a third of the country — the breakaway region of Transdniestria — remains under pro-Russian control and hosts a small Russian military presence.

Sandu warns of Moscow’s influence

President Maia Sandu has framed the election as a decisive test for Moldova’s future, warning that Russian attempts to influence the vote pose a direct threat.

“If Russia gains control over Moldova, the consequences will be immediate and dangerous for our country and for the entire region,” she said in an address last week.

Sandu’s Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) faces a challenge to its majority, with opposition groups such as the pro-Russian Patriotic Bloc capitalising on voter dissatisfaction over economic hardship and sluggish reforms — grievances compounded, officials say, by widespread disinformation.

Authorities have recently carried out hundreds of raids against allegedly Russia-backed networks accused of funnelling illicit money into parties and stoking unrest. On Friday, the Election Commission barred the Heart of Moldova party, part of the Patriotic Bloc, from the race pending an investigation into illegal financing. Moscow denies meddling, accusing Sandu’s government of stirring anti-Russian sentiment to bolster support.

Divided opinions on EU future

Sandu and PAS argue that EU integration is vital for Moldova to secure its future and reduce Moscow’s grip. But many citizens remain wary, worried about the effect on the country’s largely agricultural economy and already stark regional inequalities.

“We’re a poor country,” said Liudmila Bielova, a 76-year-old poet from Balti. “What will the European Union gain from us?” She said she would probably back the nominally pro-European Alternative bloc.

Others are disillusioned with the political class altogether. “There have been various leaders, and not a single normal, adequate change that would allow me to say, ‘Look, life in the country has become good’,” said Iulian Cazacu, a 26-year-old factory worker, who said he would likely abstain.

Tight race expected

Polling suggests the contest will be close. One survey earlier in September placed the Patriotic Bloc narrowly ahead with 36% support, against PAS’s 34.7% — the first time the ruling party has slipped into second place.

However, Moldova’s sizeable diaspora — absent from opinion polls but generally supportive of pro-European parties — could prove decisive in determining the outcome.

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