Moldova faces key parliamentary election, with EU bid at stake

Moldova holds a high-stakes parliamentary election on 28 September that could determine the fate of its bid to join the European Union, amidst what officials have described as a subversive Russian campaign to sway the vote and sabotage the effort.

The country of 2.4 million people has faced multiple crises since Russia's 2022 invasion of neighbouring Ukraine that have tested the pro-European government, which sees membership of the 27-member bloc as critical to breaking free from Moscow's orbit.

Recent polls suggest the ruling pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) could struggle to keep its majority and may need to form a coalition in the 101-seat legislature.

Opposition forces such as the pro-Russian Patriotic Bloc and the nominally pro-European Alternative alliance are courting voters bothered by high prices, slow reforms and scepticism over closer ties with Europe.

“Yes, I will go to vote because it's necessary," said 40-year-old teacher Ana Stirbu, reflecting the mindset of many pro-European voters. 

"This is about the future of our country, the future of our youth. We must decide the fate of our country, and I will choose the European path, because we have noticed changes since Maia Sandu came to power,” she added. 

Moscow denies meddling, but disinformation continues.

“Russian propaganda has specific messages for specific categories of the population...” said Eugen Muravschi, researcher at WatchDog.MD.

Coalition could hinder European integration

Any coalition would likely complicate President Maia Sandu's push for EU by 2030. A 2024 referendum on EU membership only just cleared a 50% majority.

"If we have a coalition, you can forget swift European integration given the options for ... partners," said a former senior official, speaking anonymously to give a frank assessment.

Brussels has vocally backed Sandu and considers a pro-European Moldova, which applied for EU membership in 2022 alongside Ukraine, key to snuffing out Russian influence on its eastern flank.

In August, the leaders of France, Germany and Poland visited Chisinau to underline their support for the government's EU bid.

Sandu: 'European future in danger'"

Moldova has a Romanian-speaking majority and a large Russian-speaking minority, and political power has alternated for decades between pro-Russian and pro-European groups. Russian troops are stationed in a separatist region that broke from Chisinau's control in a brief war in the early 1990s.

Sandu has described the vote as Moldova's most consequential election ever. Addressing the nation on Monday, she said Russia was spending hundreds of millions of euros to sway the vote and recruiting hundreds of people to stir disorder.

"Today, with utmost seriousness, I tell you - our sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity, and European future are in danger," she said.

Moldovan police have stepped up searches in recent weeks into illegal party financing. On Monday, security forces arrested 74 people in sweeping raids over alleged Russian-backed efforts to stoke unrest. Officials said Russian intelligence was training Moldovan citizens in Serbia on protest tactics.

Patriotic Bloc co-leader Igor Dodon, a former president, said some members of his alliance were targeted.

"The criminal PAS regime is trying to intimidate us, frighten the people, and silence us," Dodon said in a statement.

Last month, it's reported that fugitive tycoon Ilan Shor, sanctioned by the United States and EU as an alleged Russian agent, openly offered Moldovans monthly payments of $3,000 to join anti-government protests.

Domestic woes 

Voters will head into the election after years of economic malaise - largely from the war in Ukraine and an energy crunch sparked by Russian cuts to critical gas supplies.

Many voters remain focused on high inflation and slow progress on anti-corruption reforms.

Moldova, one of Europe's poorest countries, relies on expensive Romanian energy imports, with inflation still around 7%, leaving many voters frustrated.

"People don't see, in their daily lives, the benefits of EU accession," said Anastasia Pociumban of the German Council on Foreign Relations.

Meanwhile, corruption remains persistent and reforms in key areas such as the justice system have moved slowly.

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