U.S. tariffs could cost Italy up to 0.8% of GDP, business lobby says

U.S. tariffs of 30% on European Union goods could reduce Italy’s GDP by up to 0.8% by 2027, according to the country’s main business lobby, Confindustria, as transatlantic trade talks remain ongoing.

President Donald Trump has warned of imposing 30% tariffs on EU imports beginning August 1. However, his trade representative, Howard Lutnick, stated on Sunday that there is still "plenty of room" to reach a deal with European officials.

If implemented without any EU countermeasures, the tariffs could lower Italy’s GDP by 0.25% this year, 0.59% in 2026, and 0.82% in 2027, according to Confindustria’s research division.

Key Italian exports to the U.S. include machinery, pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and food products such as olive oil, pasta, cheese, and wine.

In a separate analysis, consulting firm EY projected an even steeper impact, estimating that 30% tariffs would reduce Italy’s GDP by 1.4% during 2025–2026, potentially wiping out all expected economic growth for that period.

By contrast, Italy’s national statistics agency Istat had forecast GDP growth of 0.6% in 2025 and 0.8% in 2026.

Confindustria has argued that the only acceptable U.S. tariff level is zero, noting that EU exporters are already disadvantaged by a weakening dollar, which has fallen over 12% against the euro since the beginning of the year.

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