China’s overseas shipments grew 5.8 % in June as manufacturers hurried to clear orders before a 12 August deadline that could see steep U.S. duties return, customs figures released on Monday show.
Exports rose to $308 billion, taking the trade surplus to $114.7 billion, while imports rebounded 1.1 % after May’s decline. Sales to the United States jumped 32.4 % month-on-month—the first full month benefiting from reduced U.S. tariffs—though year-on-year volumes were still lower. Shipments to the 10-nation ASEAN bloc, increasingly used as a transit hub, surged 16.8 %.
Analysts say firms are “front-loading” cargoes in case Washington and Beijing fail to cement a longer-term accord. “There are signs the demand rush is beginning to wane, but it will run through the August pause,” said Chim Lee of the Economist Intelligence Unit, noting that freight rates on China-bound U.S. routes have already begun to ease.
President Donald Trump has warned that duties of more than 100 % will snap back if no deal is struck by mid-August and has separately threatened a 40 % levy on trans-shipments via Vietnam and a 10 % charge on imports from BRICS countries. Economists fear the wider crackdown could hit Chinese exporters who route goods through third countries to avoid higher tariffs.
“Tariffs above 35 % will wipe out margins for most manufacturers,” said Zichun Huang of Capital Economics, predicting export growth will slow “over the coming quarters,” dragging on China’s expansion.
Customs data also showed rare-earth exports climbing 32 % in June following last month’s move to free up licences, while record soybean imports of 9.73 million tonnes from Brazil highlighted Beijing’s efforts to back fellow BRICS members hit by U.S. trade measures. 国产 crude-oil inflows likewise hit their highest daily rate since August 2023 as refineries stepped up purchases from Saudi Arabia and Iran.
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