Poland’s new President Karol Nawrocki signals potential strains in EU and Ukraine ties

The election of nationalist Karol Nawrocki as Poland’s new president marks a significant political shift that could complicate the country’s relations with both the European Union and Ukraine,

Nawrocki narrowly defeated centrist-backed Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, dealing a blow to Prime Minister Donald Tusk and his pro-European Civic Coalition (KO) government. Though the Polish presidency holds limited executive powers, it includes key tools such as the veto and the ability to propose legislation, giving Nawrocki influence that could hinder Tusk’s policy agenda.

Opposition to Ukraine's NATO Accession Draws Criticism

While Nawrocki maintains support for Ukraine’s defense against Russian aggression, he has publicly opposed Kyiv's accession to NATO, stating it could drag the alliance into direct conflict with Russia. He signed a declaration pledging not to ratify Ukraine's NATO membership — a dramatic departure from Poland's previous bipartisan stance.

Ukraine’s ambassador to Warsaw sharply criticized the move, while Ukrainian lawmaker Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze warned the election result would likely “complicate dialogue” with the EU and slow Ukraine’s path toward European integration.

Still, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy offered diplomatic congratulations to Nawrocki, expressing hope for "fruitful cooperation."

A Eurosceptic Voice Gains Prominence

Nawrocki’s campaign echoed the tone of other Central European eurosceptics, criticizing Brussels' influence and championing national sovereignty. “We want a strong EU, but not one that dictates our entire way of life,” he told supporters in March. His rhetoric aligns with that of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who quickly hailed Nawrocki’s win as a "fantastic victory" for nationalist politics in the region.

The result threatens to undercut Tusk’s position in Brussels, where his return as prime minister in 2023 had been seen as a realignment of Poland with the EU mainstream. One European diplomat said Nawrocki’s presidency could leave Tusk “more marginalized” in future EU negotiations.

Domestic Tensions and Legacy Conflicts

Beyond current geopolitics, Nawrocki has been vocal about historical grievances, particularly Ukraine’s alleged reluctance to exhume Polish victims of WWII-era nationalist violence. As former head of Poland's Institute of National Remembrance, Nawrocki’s assertive historical stance could further sour Warsaw-Kyiv relations.

With Poland now facing a 'cohabitation' scenario — a president and prime minister from opposing camps — political friction is expected to intensify. A third diplomat quoted by Reuters said they hoped “more energy won't be spent on fighting each other than on advancing Poland's leadership in Europe.”

Looking Ahead

Poland’s next parliamentary elections are not due until 2027, meaning this political configuration could persist for years. Observers note that Nawrocki’s posture may empower nationalist forces regionally, while complicating EU unity on key issues such as enlargement, migration, and defense.

“Foreign policy will still be led by Tusk’s government,” said Stanley Bill, professor of Polish Studies at the University of Cambridge. “But if Nawrocki adopts even more aggressive rhetoric against the EU than his predecessor, it will deepen the perception of internal division — and possibly, chaos.”

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