Russian military blogger Yuriy Podolyaka in his Telegram channel:
"The damage to the Azerbaijani Embraer 190 aircraft that crashed today near Aktau, Kazakhstan, claiming the lives of 33 people, suggests that the plane may have been accidentally struck by an air defence missile system (SAM).
Indeed, the damage closely resembles that caused by a SAM, with the detonation of the warhead occurring from the side and slightly above the aircraft.
Survivors recall hearing a "bang on board" (as we can now see, it was external) during the third attempt to land at Grozny Airport, which was shrouded in fog. Following this, the plane was redirected to Makhachkala.
However, the pilots opted to fly to Aktau, which, given the circumstances, was a highly logical decision."
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