Emperor penguin population in Antarctica declines faster than worst-case projections

A new study warns that the emperor penguin population in Antarctica is shrinking faster than expected, with numbers falling by 22% over 15 years due to climate change and unstable sea ice.

Emperor penguins, the largest penguin species and a vital part of Antarctica's ecosystem, are experiencing a population collapse “worse than the worst-case projections,” according to new research published Tuesday by the British Antarctic Survey (BAS).

The study, based on satellite imagery analysis, found that emperor penguin numbers in a key sector of Antarctica have declined by 22% between 2009 and 2023, dropping at an average rate of 1.6% annually.

“This is worse than the worst-case projections we have for emperors this century,” said Peter Fretwell, a wildlife-from-space expert at BAS, expressing deep concern about the findings.

Emperor penguins are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change due to their heavy dependence on stable seasonal sea ice for breeding. “Unfortunately, the recent trend has seen sea ice in many parts of the continent become patchy and unreliable, likely harming breeding success,” the study noted.

Beyond sea ice loss, the penguins also face mounting challenges from changing weather patterns, food competition due to shifting wildlife ranges, and increased predation and disturbance by species like petrels.

“The fact that we're moving to a position faster than the computer models project means there must be other factors we need to understand,” said co-author Phil Trathan, emeritus fellow at BAS.

Trathan emphasized that curbing greenhouse gas emissions is critical to reversing the decline. “If we don't, we'll probably have relatively few emperor penguins left by the turn of this century,” he warned.

Currently, the World Wildlife Fund estimates the global emperor penguin population at around 270,000 breeding pairs, making them the least common Antarctic penguin species.

Scientists are now working to determine whether similar declines are occurring across other regions of Antarctica.

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