The Earth is projected to warm by 2.7°C by the end of the century, significantly overshooting the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal – but scientists say worst-case climate scenarios may still be avoided if current momentum continues.
Nearly a decade after nations committed under the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to “well below 2°C,” cutting emissions enough to meet the 1.5°C target now appears unlikely. Yet, global action has steered the world away from the most catastrophic climate outcomes.
Thanks to the rapid deployment of renewables, energy efficiency measures, and climate policies, the Earth is now tracking toward 2.7°C of warming by 2100. While still a dangerous level, it represents an improvement over past projections driven by unchecked coal and oil use.
“We’re not where we need to be, but we’ve made enough progress to avoid the very worst,” said researchers behind the One Earth Climate Model, which sets a stricter emissions pathway than current global scenarios.
Where We Stand Now
Since industrialisation, greenhouse gas emissions – mainly carbon dioxide (CO₂) from coal, oil, and gas – have steadily climbed. In 2023, 41% of energy-related CO₂ emissions came from coal, with oil and natural gas accounting for another 53%.
The world felt the impact in 2024, which the World Meteorological Organization confirmed as the hottest year on record, briefly breaching the 1.5°C warming threshold and triggering heatwaves, floods, and cyclones globally.
Climate Pathways and Projections
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) outlines four main emissions pathways (RCPs), only one of which – RCP 2.6 – is compatible with Paris goals. Current trajectories place Earth between RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5, landing us at 2.7°C warming by century’s end.
This level would present “unprecedented peril” for ecosystems and societies, but experts say it's a more hopeful outlook than previous high-emissions scenarios like RCP 8.5.
Progress by Region
European Union emissions fell by 8.3% in 2023, now 37% below 1990 levels, while GDP rose.
Australia recorded a 0.6% drop last year, down 28.2% from 2005 levels.
United States emissions are 20% below 2005 levels and trending downward.
China, the largest global emitter, saw emissions fall for the first time, thanks to a boom in renewables.
Can We Still Make a Difference?
Despite challenges, many scientists believe 1.5°C may be technically possible, though unlikely. To meet that threshold, the world must:
Global emissions must peak no later than 2025, and 2024 could mark that turning point.
Already, renewables make up over 90% of new power capacity, and electric vehicles and heat pumps are becoming cost-competitive.
“It’s not too late,” experts say. “Every tenth of a degree matters. The faster we act, the fewer lives lost, homes destroyed, and ecosystems lost.”
Even if the 1.5°C goal slips out of reach, the pathway to a safer climate future is still open — if global action accelerates.
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