The Earth is projected to warm by 2.7°C by the end of the century, significantly overshooting the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal – but scientists say worst-case climate scenarios may still be avoided if current momentum continues.
Nearly a decade after nations committed under the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to “well below 2°C,” cutting emissions enough to meet the 1.5°C target now appears unlikely. Yet, global action has steered the world away from the most catastrophic climate outcomes.
Thanks to the rapid deployment of renewables, energy efficiency measures, and climate policies, the Earth is now tracking toward 2.7°C of warming by 2100. While still a dangerous level, it represents an improvement over past projections driven by unchecked coal and oil use.
“We’re not where we need to be, but we’ve made enough progress to avoid the very worst,” said researchers behind the One Earth Climate Model, which sets a stricter emissions pathway than current global scenarios.
Where We Stand Now
Since industrialisation, greenhouse gas emissions – mainly carbon dioxide (CO₂) from coal, oil, and gas – have steadily climbed. In 2023, 41% of energy-related CO₂ emissions came from coal, with oil and natural gas accounting for another 53%.
The world felt the impact in 2024, which the World Meteorological Organization confirmed as the hottest year on record, briefly breaching the 1.5°C warming threshold and triggering heatwaves, floods, and cyclones globally.
Climate Pathways and Projections
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) outlines four main emissions pathways (RCPs), only one of which – RCP 2.6 – is compatible with Paris goals. Current trajectories place Earth between RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5, landing us at 2.7°C warming by century’s end.
This level would present “unprecedented peril” for ecosystems and societies, but experts say it's a more hopeful outlook than previous high-emissions scenarios like RCP 8.5.
Progress by Region
European Union emissions fell by 8.3% in 2023, now 37% below 1990 levels, while GDP rose.
Australia recorded a 0.6% drop last year, down 28.2% from 2005 levels.
United States emissions are 20% below 2005 levels and trending downward.
China, the largest global emitter, saw emissions fall for the first time, thanks to a boom in renewables.
Can We Still Make a Difference?
Despite challenges, many scientists believe 1.5°C may be technically possible, though unlikely. To meet that threshold, the world must:
Global emissions must peak no later than 2025, and 2024 could mark that turning point.
Already, renewables make up over 90% of new power capacity, and electric vehicles and heat pumps are becoming cost-competitive.
“It’s not too late,” experts say. “Every tenth of a degree matters. The faster we act, the fewer lives lost, homes destroyed, and ecosystems lost.”
Even if the 1.5°C goal slips out of reach, the pathway to a safer climate future is still open — if global action accelerates.
Fourteen years after President Barack Obama asked Steve Jobs what it would take to manufacture iPhones in the United States, President Donald Trump is pressing Apple CEO Tim Cook with the same question — but under more aggressive terms.
Russia will send the same delegation to the second round of negotiations with Ukraine, scheduled for June 2 in Istanbul, according to a diplomatic statement on Thursday.
The next five years are likely to be the warmest in recorded history, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), as rising global temperatures push the planet closer to surpassing key climate thresholds with wide-ranging consequences.
Brazil’s economy is expected to have regained momentum in the first quarter of 2025, driven by a surge in household spending and private investment, according to a Reuters poll of economists conducted from May 21–26.
A 53-year-old man has been charged after a car was driven into a crowd during Liverpool FC’s trophy parade celebration.
Fourteen years after President Barack Obama asked Steve Jobs what it would take to manufacture iPhones in the United States, President Donald Trump is pressing Apple CEO Tim Cook with the same question — but under more aggressive terms.
Russia will send the same delegation to the second round of negotiations with Ukraine, scheduled for June 2 in Istanbul, according to a diplomatic statement on Thursday.
The next five years are likely to be the warmest in recorded history, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), as rising global temperatures push the planet closer to surpassing key climate thresholds with wide-ranging consequences.
A U.S. federal trade court delivered a significant blow to President Donald Trump’s trade policy on Wednesday, ruling that his administration exceeded presidential authority when it imposed sweeping tariffs on nearly all U.S. trading partners.
Brazil’s economy is expected to have regained momentum in the first quarter of 2025, driven by a surge in household spending and private investment, according to a Reuters poll of economists conducted from May 21–26.
AnewZ takes to the streets of Yerevan and Baku to ask a simple yet deeply complex question: How do you see peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan? In the first part of our special report, we hear the hopes, doubts, and scars still shaping people’s perspectives on both sides.
On May 28, the inauguration ceremony of Lachin International Airport was held.
A car drove into crowds of Liverpool fans celebrating the club’s Premier League title in the city centre on Monday evening, injuring dozens including 4 children. A 53-year-old man believed to be the driver was arrested at the scene.
EU ministers have greenlit a massive €150 billion defense investment fund—dubbed the Security Action for Europe (SAFE)—as the bloc ramps up its military readiness in response to Russia’s aggression and growing uncertainty over U.S. security guarantees.
Kyiv faced a large-scale Russian drone and missile assault overnight, with explosions and gunfire echoing throughout the city, forcing residents to shelter in subway stations.
The next five years are likely to be the warmest in recorded history, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), as rising global temperatures push the planet closer to surpassing key climate thresholds with wide-ranging consequences.
A seabird chick found with 778 plastic pieces inside its body on a remote island between Australia and New Zealand has become a powerful symbol of the global plastic pollution crisis. Scientists say the plastic has caused chronic illness and cognitive decline in the bird, raising urgent concerns abo
Tajikistan is hosting the International Conference on Glacier Preservation from May 29 to June 1, 2025, in Dushanbe, aiming to highlight the urgent need to halt glacial retreat and elevate the issue on the global climate agenda.
PennEnergy Resources has withdrawn its permits to draw water from Big Sewickley Creek in western Pennsylvania, a decision welcomed by environmentalists who say the move reflects growing concerns over climate variability and surface water demand from the fracking industry.
Saudi Arabia's ACWA Power has signed a memorandum of understanding with Malaysia to develop up to 12.5 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity by 2040, backed by an initial investment of $10 billion.
Fourteen years after President Barack Obama asked Steve Jobs what it would take to manufacture iPhones in the United States, President Donald Trump is pressing Apple CEO Tim Cook with the same question — but under more aggressive terms.
Russia will send the same delegation to the second round of negotiations with Ukraine, scheduled for June 2 in Istanbul, according to a diplomatic statement on Thursday.
The next five years are likely to be the warmest in recorded history, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), as rising global temperatures push the planet closer to surpassing key climate thresholds with wide-ranging consequences.
A U.S. federal trade court delivered a significant blow to President Donald Trump’s trade policy on Wednesday, ruling that his administration exceeded presidential authority when it imposed sweeping tariffs on nearly all U.S. trading partners.
Brazil’s economy is expected to have regained momentum in the first quarter of 2025, driven by a surge in household spending and private investment, according to a Reuters poll of economists conducted from May 21–26.
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